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With a 62% chance according to experts, find out who has the best chance of winning the US elections. Will Donald Trump or Kamala Harris be the next president?
With one week to go until the US elections, bookmakers and public opinion polls are at odds over Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' chances of victory in the American elections.
Analysts from one of the largest betting platforms in the world point out that predictions for Trump's victory are more favorable than ever. According to them, Trump has a 62% chance of winning the White House, a probability significantly higher than the 2016 and 2020 estimates, when bookmakers underestimated their support.
This assessment, which takes into account real-time data from electoral betting markets, contrasts with national polls. Since she took office, Kamala Harris has led, albeit by a narrow margin, in national polls.
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The tight race reflects a polarized political landscape, where every vote in battleground states can define the final outcome.
Betting history and the “Trump Phenomenon” in the US elections
In 2016, Trump defied the odds of bookmakers in the US election, which gave him only a 26% chance of victory with one week to go. However, the Republican surprised the world by defeating Hillary Clinton and, in 2020, although he did not repeat the same success, the odds indicated a modest 34% support before the election.
Now, with the countdown to November 5, betting analysts say the scenario is unprecedented: Trump appears with a 62% chance in the betting markets. This confidence is especially reflected in the seven swing states, which historically oscillate between Democrats and Republicans.
One of the bettors commented on the favorable moment for the Republican candidate. According to him, the current scenario is reminiscent of the eve of the 2016 elections, but with even more consolidated support among bettors. “With one week remaining, the odds are stacked in Trump's favor. His campaign has gotten a boost in the betting, indicating that the race is closer than many analysts initially predicted.”He stated.
National Poll Analysis: Harris vs. Trump
The dynamics of the polls also present important nuances. Since Harris officially entered the race, her national average voting intentions have shown a slight advantage, with margins that have varied throughout August and September. This slight lead, however, does not necessarily reflect a guaranteed victory.
As the US uses the electoral college system, each state has a different weight, making performance in key states where voters swing between both parties crucial.
In terms of national popularity, Harris saw her numbers rise shortly after entering the race. The candidate gained nearly four percentage points in the polls by the end of August.
However, this initial advantage stabilized, and after the single debate between the two candidates, held on September 10, the differences narrowed again. This phenomenon, observed by both experts and the public, indicates that the race for the White House is still open.
Battlefield States
In the seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — polls show an extremely tight race. So far, Trump holds a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Harris led in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where she held an average lead until mid-August. However, in recent weeks, Harris's lead in those states has become more fragile, with Trump briefly overtaking her in Pennsylvania.
Historically, these states were key to Trump's 2016 victory, especially in the so-called "rust belt" region, which includes Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Harris can win back these Democratic strongholds, as Biden did in 2020, she will have a considerable chance of obtaining the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Limitations and margin of error in research
While polls provide a comprehensive view of popular preference, they are not infallible. In recent election cycles, national and state polls have underestimated Trump’s support, failing to capture the nuances of conservative and rural voters.
In response, many polling firms have adjusted their methodologies to better reflect the makeup of the American electorate. However, these adjustments rely on assumptions that may not hold up in practice.
Uncertainty is compounded by factors such as voter turnout. Voter turnout can be influenced by a variety of factors, from enthusiasm for candidates to logistical issues and barriers on election day. In previous elections, Trump's voter base has proven particularly engaged, defying predictions of low turnout.
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