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Overlapping natural and artificial seismic signals poses challenge for global monitoring of clandestine nuclear activities
Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States have released a study that points to a worrying possibility: underground nuclear test explosions could be hidden under the guise of natural earthquakes.
The discovery suggests that detecting clandestine testing may be more challenging than previously thought.
Review of previous findings
The new study contrasts with an analysis published in 2012. That year, experts concluded that earthquakes could not mask the signals left by nuclear explosions.
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However, the latest data indicates that the overlapping waveforms of an earthquake and an explosion can fool even advanced digital detectors.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), signed in 1996, seeks to ban all nuclear explosions in any environment. To ensure compliance, an international monitoring system was established to identify explosions underground, in the air and underwater. The new research, however, raises questions about the effectiveness of current methods in specific situations.
Detection rate drops amid tremors
The Los Alamos scientists' study showed that a detector's ability to identify a 1,7-ton explosion underground drops from 97 percent to just 37 percent if an earthquake occurs 250 kilometers away within 100 seconds of the detonation.
This scenario highlights how natural events can hinder the identification of nuclear activities. clandestine. According to the authors, the difficulty is due to the mixing of seismic signals generated by both events, which can confuse automatic detection systems.
Furthermore, the masking effect also impacts the detection of smaller earthquakes and other seismic phenomena. In tests, the identification rate of small events dropped from 92% to just 16% when there was overlapping signals.
Proposals to improve identification
To address this challenge, the researchers developed an alternative method. They worked with data from natural explosions and earthquakes recorded at the Nevada National Security Site.
The strategy consisted of reducing the amplitude of the blast waves to simulate smaller events, and then combining these signals with earthquake waveforms.
The aim was to see if the detectors could distinguish between a real explosion and a natural tremor. The results suggest that tweaks to the algorithms could make identification more accurate, even in overlapping scenarios.
Scientists stressed that, despite the difficulties, confirming a nuclear explosion is not based solely on seismic signals. Other factors, such as the presence of radionuclides in the atmosphere, are also essential in determining whether tests have occurred.
Challenges remain
While it is unlikely that a nuclear test could be completely concealed using earthquakes as a cover, the study suggests that such a tactic could make monitoring systems much more difficult to work with.
The new research provides important insights into improving detection techniques, reinforcing the need to combine multiple data sources to ensure accurate identification of explosions.
The full study was published ino Journal of the Seismological Society of America, bringing new elements to the discussion on nuclear arms security and control on the global stage.
