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Venezuela has issued a direct threat to Brazil through a post on social media controlled by dictator Nicolás Maduro’s police. In a provocative image, the silhouette of President Lula appears in front of the Brazilian flag, accompanied by the shocking phrase: “Whoever messes with Venezuela will be in trouble!” This act, which for many represents an explicit provocation, reveals the deterioration and complexity of the relationship between the two countries, calling into question the historical ties between the left-wing Latin American nations.
Venezuela, led by Maduro, has long maintained a close political relationship with Brazil, especially since the government of Hugo Chávez, with whom Lula shared visions of independence and a united Latin America against US influence. However, this closeness has recently begun to be challenged, with Brazil adopting a more critical stance and demanding more democratic attitudes from Maduro, especially after the controversial 2024 Venezuelan electoral process, which was filled with allegations of fraud and repression.
A friendship fractured by the crisis: Venezuela x Brazil
Lula, who always supported the project Venezuela’s political leader and key partner to Maduro at critical moments, now finds himself at a crossroads. The Brazilian government’s frustration has grown as Maduro has ignored key electoral transparency agreements and continued to escalate authoritarian measures. The once-solid relationship began to unravel when Brazil, under Lula’s leadership, vetoed Venezuela’s entry into BRICS, blocking an alliance that would have been of great interest to Maduro and his supporters.
The veto was seen as an unexpected blow, prompting a furious response from Maduro, who accused the Foreign Ministry of subservience to the United States and questioned Brazil's independence. The fiery rhetoric from Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is part of an attempt to preserve his domestic image, but at the same time it has revealed deep fissures in diplomacy between the countries.
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The Brazilian response and the uncertain future of relations
The Brazilian government opted for formal silence, but demonstrated its dissatisfaction by summoning Venezuelan ambassador Manuel Vadel for consultations. This type of action is generally seen as a manifestation of diplomatic protest, a warning of the possibility of more severe measures if the threats continue.
Lula’s decision to maintain a firm stance, seeking an international relationship based on democracy and responsibility, could strengthen Brazil’s image as an ethical leader in Latin America. However, Venezuela continues to use confrontation as a way to consolidate domestic support, in a strategy to maintain the narrative of an external enemy. For Maduro, this clash with Brazil is an opportunity to reinforce nationalism and divert attention from criticism of his administration.
Amid this tension, the scenario between Brazil and Venezuela presents two possibilities: either the countries will drift apart and follow increasingly isolated paths, or a strategic reconciliation, based on pragmatism and diplomacy, could emerge.
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