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According to analysts, this could be an alternative to improve the government's crisis with truck drivers, but it could harm public coffers in the long term.
During last Monday, June 06th, President Jair Bolsonaro stated that he would be creating and developing a project that aims to reduce part of the price of cooking gas and diesel. According to the President of the Republic, it is estimated that there will be a decrease in the collection of federal taxes instead of a bar in the quotations made by Petrobras. A possible interruption in the state-owned company could cause its shares on the stock exchange to fall.
The idea taken by the President of the Republic is to reset the ICMS charged for both diesel and liquefied petroleum gas, also known as LPG, the famous cooking gas. What raised a series of oppositions is that the PEC predicts that there will be a transfer of only R$ 22 million to the states in compensation for the end of fuel taxation, which reaches a third of their value. The measure also provides for changes in electricity, as it is estimated that it will present a drop of at least 17% over its final value.
Jair Bolsonaro's project for gas and diesel could cost more than R$ 50 billion for public coffers but it could be his election key again in October
During the year 2022, the elections for President of the Republic are scheduled to take place, in which Jair Bolsonaro intends to compete side by side with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, according to surveys being shared by Datafolha, it is estimated that the PT candidate will still win in the first round. Paulo Guedes, current Minister of Economy, said in an interview that the Pec, which could cost more than R$ 50 billion for the federal public coffers, will come into force and remain active until the end of 2022.
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Truck drivers had already been threatening the government with strikes and carried out at least three national strikes during 2021, one of them on Independence Day, in the middle of a holiday. According to the sector, it is becoming unfeasible to work.
The impact on prices
The impact on prices can be significant and, according to the project announced late yesterday afternoon, the value of a liter of diesel will be reduced by R$ 0,8 cents. This tax is being charged directly from refineries by Petrobras, with its data updated until May 28th. The estimated amount is that the price of diesel could fall in the range of 11%. However, it is important to inform that the reduction may be greater or lesser, all depending on the taxation that is charged by the states. That is, the more the state is taxing its consumers, the greater the fall in values tends to be.
The project also stated that it intends to reduce the price of gasoline. Gasoline may have a drop of at least R$ 0,7. This will impact more than 20 states that are charging more than R$7 per liter. A tax-free day advertisement, which was carried out by the company Havan, belonging to Luciano Hang, showed that the Gasoline without taxes is R$5. That is, R$ 2 in each liter sold is taxed by the federal, state and municipal government. Meanwhile, cooking gas is forecast to reduce in the 13% range.
