English 
Spanish 
4 min read 
0 comments 
Brazil may be on the verge of a labor crisis! With economic growth accelerating, experts warn of an imminent shortage of workers.
In the last years, Brazil has experienced remarkable economic growth, exceeding expectations and surprising analysts.
However, behind these promising numbers, experts warn of a challenge that could compromise the country's future.
A crucial issue is emerging on the Brazilian economic horizon, demanding attention and effective strategies.
- China invests in 78 ports in Africa and expands logistics dominance in 32 countries
- Brazil becomes the world's second largest air conditioning manufacturer, achieving impressive volumes driven by intense heat waves!
- Google acquires Wiz for $32 billion, marking the largest acquisition in the group's history
- Balneário Camboriú will have its own 'Brazilian Times Square' with the opening of the New York Food Lounge
Fast-paced economy could face labor shortages
Economist Margarida Gutierrez, a full professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), recently highlighted a significant concern:
“If the economy doesn’t slow down, there will be a shortage of workers”. This statement was made during his participation in the Smart Summit 2025, an event organized by InvestSmart XP and AZ Quest in Rio de Janeiro, as reported by the Investing website.
Mismatch between labor supply and demand
According to Gutierrez, data from the last Demographic Census and the National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), both from IBGE, indicate that the potential growth in labor supply is approximately 0,3% per year, which represents around 450 thousand people entering the job market annually.
In contrast, only in 2024, 2,8 million jobs were created, corresponding to a 2,8% increase in the demand for labor.
This discrepancy highlights a worrying mismatch between the supply and demand for labor in the country.
Income elasticity of employment and productivity
The economist explained the concept of income elasticity of employment, which measures how the level of employment responds to changes in income and economic growth.
In Brazil, this elasticity is high, reflecting the low productivity of the economy.. Gutierrez emphasized that “increasing productivity takes time”, suggesting that solutions to this challenge cannot be achieved through short-term economic policies.
Projections for 2025 and internal slowdown factors
For 2025, Gutierrez projects a slowdown in the Brazilian economy, with estimated growth between 1,5% and 2%. She attributes this prediction to three internal factors:
- High Selic rate
The expectation is that Selic rate reaches 15% per year in 2025, with a real rate of approximately 10%. This would make credit more expensive, discouraging household spending and business investment.
- Increase in inflation
Projections indicate that the IPCA will exceed the upper limit of the inflation target in 2025. While the center of the target is 3% and the limit is 4,5%, economists consulted by Boletim Focus predict that the IPCA ends 2025 at 5,58%, reducing the purchasing power of employees.
- Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions
That includes devaluation of assets, higher dollar, high future interest rates and fall in Ibovespa.
Gutierrez points out the “fiscal risk” and classifies the economic policy mix as “harmful”, due to the simultaneous increase in public spending and tax collection, deteriorating market expectations about Brazilian assets.
External impact: US trade policy
In addition to internal factors, Gutierrez highlights that the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency adds a slowdown factor to the Brazilian economy in 2025.
Trump's trade policy has created adverse conditions for the global economy, especially for emerging countries, increasing uncertainty.
“A trade war is likely underway”, said the economist, referring to the tariffs imposed by the US government on imported products.
Consequences for emerging countries
As “liquidity financing conditions for emerging countries have deteriorated”, Gutierrez assessed, pointing to a trend of lower inflow of foreign capital, both in capital markets and in productive investments.
Also, there are an expectation of a reduction in the flow of international trade, with the risk of a slowdown in the global economy as an effect of American tariffs.
Challenges and the need for long-term policies
Given this scenario, Brazil faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with labor availability.
The solution involves investments in productivity and education, as well as economic policies that consider the long term.
Economist Margarida Gutierrez emphasizes that “increasing productivity takes time”, suggesting that immediate measures may not be effective in solving the problem.
Perspectives for Brazil's economic future
As projections for 2025 indicate an economic slowdown, influenced by internal and external factors.
The increase in the Selic rate, the rise in inflation and the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions are challenges that the country will need to face.
Furthermore, US trade policy adds a layer of complexity to the Brazilian economic landscape..
According to the expert, Brazil is currently at an economic crossroads, where accelerated growth could lead to a labor shortage, compromising sustainable development..
In this sense, people with knowledge on the subject claim to be imperative that the country adopt long-term strategies focused on increasing productivity and balancing economic growth with the availability of human resources.
