4 min read 
0 comments 
Central Bank surprises and reduces GDP forecast for 2025! The economy faces a slowdown scenario, with weakened industry and services. While credit shrinks, agriculture shines with record harvest! What to expect from Brazil's economic future? Experts analyze the challenges and opportunities for the country in the coming months.
The Central Bank (BC) revised downwards its projection for growth in the Brazilian economy in 2025. According to the Monetary Policy Report (RPM), released this Thursday (27/3), the estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell from 2,1% to 1,9%.
This revision reflects expectations of lower growth in the industrial and service sectors, partially offset by significant growth in agriculture.
Review comes after negative surprises at the end of 2024
The monetary authority justified the change based on lower-than-expected data in the fourth quarter of 2024, in addition to the forecast of a weaker pace throughout 2025.
- This rare product could make Brazil one of the richest countries on the planet
- Petrobras refinery will hire 5 people to work as painters, boilermakers, mechanics, electricians, freeloaders, scaffolders, among others
- Brazil and China discuss implementation of corridor that will bring the country closer to its Asian partner
- Investors Now Treat Bitcoin Like a Tech Stock — Cryptocurrency Seen as Macroeconomically Sensitive Asset
The positive performance of agriculture, driven by expectations of a record soybean harvest, mitigated the decline and led to the sector having its growth projection raised from 4% to 6,5%.
On the other hand, the industrial and service sectors had their projections reduced. The industry went from an expected growth of 2,4% to 2,2%, while services fell from 1,9% to 1,5%.
These segments are more sensitive to the macroeconomic scenario and may suffer from high interest rates and lower internal demand.
Growth expectation in the first quarter
Even with the downward revision of the TAX ID No Annually, the Central Bank highlighted that the first quarter of 2025 may show more robust growth. Among the factors that may boost the economy in the first months of the year are:
- Minimum wage increase, which drives household consumption;
- Release of FGTS resources, allowing greater circulation of money;
- Recovery of specific sectors, such as agribusiness and commerce.
However, the BC warns that this initial growth may be temporary, as the Brazilian economy will face a more challenging scenario throughout the year.
Monetary policy and global scenario put pressure on the economy
The Central Bank warned of a more intense slowdown in the coming months, caused by three main factors:
- Tighter monetary policy: The increase in interest rates makes access to credit difficult and reduces investments.
- Lower fiscal expansion: The government has less room to increase public spending, which could reduce economic activity.
- Moderate global growth: The economic performance of trading partner countries directly influences Brazilian exports.
Given this scenario, experts point out that Brazil should face a year of more modest growth, with challenges that could impact the job market and inflation.
Credit projection also revised downwards
Another point highlighted in the report was the revision of expectations for credit growth in the National Financial System (SFN). The projection for 2025 fell from 9,6% to 7,7%, reflecting an environment of high interest rates and lower economic dynamism.
Forecasts for free credit were also adjusted downwards, affecting both individuals and legal entities.
This means that companies and consumers may find it more difficult to obtain financing, which may negatively impact consumption and productive investments.
Outlook for the rest of the year
Experts point out that, despite the difficulties, some factors can help sustain economic growth in 2025:
- Agricultural exports on the rise, driven by international demand;
- Possible easing of monetary policy, if inflation remains under control;
- Government measures to encourage consumption and production.
However, the global scenario is still uncertain, and fluctuations in commodity prices, in addition to international economic decisions, can affect Brazilian performance.
The Central Bank emphasizes that the Brazilian economy is not immune to internal and external challenges, and the GDP revision for 2025 reflects a scenario of slower, but still positive, growth.
The slowdown may affect strategic sectors, but agriculture remains a strong point for the national economy.
The coming months will be crucial to understanding how economic policies and the global scenario will influence the country's performance.
Meanwhile, consumers and businesses should prepare for a year of economic adjustments and challenges.
