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Loved by many and hated by just as many, the powerful Trump returns to the White House with the 'America First' policy: who wins and who loses? Ukraine, NATO, Israel and China — global allies and rivals.
Donald Trump's return to the global political scene in 2024 promises to shake up the foundations of international relations and redefine the United States' stance toward allies and rivals. With his policy “America First” returning to the spotlight, the impact of its decisions reaches from the American Army to countries such as Ukraine, NATO, Israel and China, raising both expectations of stability and fears of new global tensions.
But who really wins and who loses from Donald Trump's new American approach? Understand how this change of direction could reshape the balance of power in the 21st century and profoundly affect the geopolitical landscape.
Impacts of Trump's return: Gains and losses for Ukraine, NATO, Israel, China and the US Army
Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a transformation both domestically and internationally. His pragmatic and direct style suggests a policy focused on strengthening the U.S. military and prioritizing American interests, often over multilateral alliances, which has sparked enthusiasm in some quarters and concern in others.
During his first term, Donald Trump prioritized an “America First” foreign policy approach, disregarding alliances he saw as burdensome. Now, the country is expected to reduce its direct involvement in conflicts, encouraging other nations to take on more responsibility for their own defense.
NATO, for example, is set to undergo a review of the US role in the alliance, with Trump urging Europe to invest more in defence. The move, which aims to reduce Europe’s dependence on US military support, could strengthen regional alliances. But it also raises concerns that the gradual withdrawal of the US military could leave a gap that powers such as Russia and China could try to fill.
Ukraine and the economic weight of the conflict for the US 'pocket'
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the US, under Biden, has become one of the European country's main supporters. With Donald Trump in power, there is likely to be a change: he is advocating a negotiated solution, aimed at reducing the financial and economic costs of the war, including the impact on global energy prices.
This stance could be unfavorable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who relies on Western support and US military assistance to contain Russia. On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin may see advantages in a less interventionist and more negotiating US stance, as this favors his expansionist interests.
Middle East: Support for Israel and pressure on Iran, Donald Trump must resume his policy of “deterrence by force”
Donald Trump is known for his strong support for Israel and believes that the country's security is essential for regional stability. In this sense, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may consider himself a beneficiary of the new US policy, which promises to continue with substantial military and financial support.
On Iran, Trump is likely to resume his policy of “deterrence by force.” Since abandoning the nuclear deal in 2018, he has stepped up economic sanctions against Iran to curb its nuclear program. Trump sees a nuclear Iran as a direct threat to Israel and its Gulf allies, and would be willing to support preemptive action to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Beijing on alert: China is seen by Trump as the biggest economic rival of the US
Trump sees China as the United States' biggest economic rival, and he has already signaled the possibility of increasing tariffs on Chinese products, seeking to protect the American economy and reduce the trade deficit. For him, these tariffs are not only a negotiating measure, but also a way to strengthen domestic production and reduce the United States' dependence on Chinese products.
Regarding Taiwan, Trump advocates that the country assume a greater share of the costs of its defense, but also promises to support its security, considering the strategic importance of the island in containing Chinese influence in the Pacific.
Abraham Accords: A Path to Peace in the Middle East
An important aspect of Trump's policy is his desire to expand the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab countries. These agreements, seen as a path to peace in the Middle East, should be expanded to include more Arab countries and promote a joint fight against terrorism.
The new position of the USA on the international scene
Trump’s return represents a transactional approach focused on direct US interests that promises to divide opinion globally. Israel and Russia may see advantages in this pragmatism, while Ukraine and Iran may face greater challenges.
This new policy is likely to significantly impact international relations and geopolitics in the coming decades, defining a new American stance on the global stage.
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