For years, China was the world's demographic powerhouse; today, it faces a new reality: more pets than children

China is seeing a demographic inversion: more pets than children. This phenomenon reflects profound changes in Chinese society and opens up new market opportunities

China was for many years the great demographic power in the world, but now it is starting to have more pets than children. In full population decline, with two years of demographic “explosion” and after seeing how India took it out of first place in the ranking of the most populous countries on the planet, the Asian giant faces a new social reality. One with more dogs and cats than children in its homes. This is clearly shown by Goldman Sachs in a recent report that predicts that by the end of this decade the country will have more than 70 million urban pets Comparing to 40 million young children.

There are those who see these figures as a profitable business. Cities with more pets than babies. This is the panorama facing China according to Goldman Sachs, which in its latest report reveals how the country's urban pet populations and that of young children are following diametrically opposite trends.

The first grows while the second decreases. The data is eloquent: in 2017, when China had around 90 million children aged zero to four, the population of urban pets — dogs and cats — was around the 40 million. The American analysis firm calculates that this year both will converge around 58 million and that by the end of this same decade, in 2030, China will host less than 40 million children up to four years compared to more than 70 million pets in urban areas.

A big emerging business

Following Japan's path, China finds itself on the same trajectory as countries like Japan or the United States, where the imbalance between children and pets is even more pronounced. In a Japan immersed in a serious birth crisis, the pet population is already four times bigger than that of young children, according to the Financial Times. In the USA, the largest companion animal market in the world, data from the government and the Veterinary Medical Association indicate that in 2020 there were between 84 and 89 million dogs e 60-62 million cats Comparing to 73 million children, without taking into account your age.

More pets translate into more and better prospects for the industry that takes care of them. This is an idea that underlines the Goldman Sachs report. His numbers are once again impressive. As the population of domestic dogs and cats grows and even surpasses that of newborns, the market centered on their food also grows, until it becomes a thriving commercial business. 12 billions of dollars, which is the perspective that the American analyst holds for the end of this decade.

Its report predicts that the pet food industry will grow in China at a compound annual rate of 8%, passing from 51 billion yuan (7,1 billion dollars) that it managed last year to 63 bilhões (8,8 billion dollars) in 2030. In a more optimistic scenario, with an increase in demand especially pronounced among cat owners, the market could even double and reach the 15 billions of dollars.

Almost 83,2 billions of dollars. Goldman Sachs' forecasts are not the only ones that the sector handles. In autumn, the firm iiMedia Research published its own report about the lucrative economy that is developing around pets in China. Its conclusion: in 2023, after recording a compound growth rate of 20,2% between 2015 and 2020, it would have already reached the 592,8 billion yuan ($83,19 billion). And with rising prospects. In 2025, it would already reach the 811,4 billion yuan ($113,6 billion). The study authors point to other segments that go beyond food, such as complements, veterinary care or toys.

Changes in China's society

Good prospects. “We expect a greater boost in pet ownership in a context of relatively lower birth rates and a greater penetration of companion animals in homes by younger generations”, points out analyst Valerie Zhou in the Goldman Sachs report.

After the Chinese pet boom, however, there is a complex reality that goes beyond the birth crisis. During an interview with the Financial Times, Laura Luo, who works in education in Chengdu — in Sichuan province — points to the atomization of society. “Maintaining a relationship with a pet is much cheaper and less difficult than maintaining a relationship between people,” she adds.

A changing society. The popularization of companion animals is just one of the clues that tell us about the changes that Chinese society is going through. The South China Morning Post pointed out another this week: the country's couples are getting married less and less. So much so, in fact, that, barring an unexpected surprise, everything points to this year falling to its lowest level in recent decades. Between January and June, there were 3,43 million couples to get married, almost half a million less than during the first half of 2023. If the trend continues, 2024 will close with the lowest level since the end of the 70s.

The other trend, even more relevant, is the clear drop in the birth rate. In 2023, the Asian giant recorded 6,39 births per thousand inhabitants, which places the birth rate at its lowest levels since the founding of communist China in 1949. With 9,02 million babies, half a million less than the previous year, the nation's population fell to 1,409 Billions People.

Image: Mehmet Aslan / Comedy Pet Photography Awards