English 
Spanish 
4 min read
0 comments
With a 5,81% increase in October, the price of meat continues to rise and promises to weigh heavily on Brazilians' pockets this year-end. Understand the reasons and projections for 2025.
If there's one thing Brazilians love, it's a hearty barbecue on the weekend. But the joy of preparing the famous picanha or a juicy rib is becoming increasingly expensive. The increase in meat prices in October was 5,81%, the highest increase in four years, even surpassing the average inflation rate for the last 12 months, which was 4,76%. And the projections for the coming months do not bring good news: the trend is for the cost of meat to rise even further.
Why are meat prices rising so much?
The increase in meat prices is directly linked to the rise in the price of cattle on farms, which has already accumulated a 33% increase in the last two months. This increase in costs occurs amid a severe drought that has damaged pastures, reducing the supply of animals for slaughter. And since the law of supply and demand is unforgiving, with less cattle available, prices inevitably rise.
The international scenario also plays an important role. Brazilian beef exports are on the rise, especially to the United States. With the devalued real, Brazil becomes an even more attractive destination for importers. This creates direct competition between the foreign market and the domestic consumer, putting even more pressure on meat prices here.
- Federal government approves and pre-salt oil will be auctioned! New Chinese dominance?
- Governor announces R$25 MILLION for construction of new marginal roads on important Brazilian highway (BR)
- MORE TAXES! The government wants to increase taxes by 300% and eating out will become more expensive! Restaurant owners are already fearing the worst
- Did you know? The future of cars is being decided right now in Brazil
Prices of beef, chicken and pork are also expected to increase
The rise in the price of meat is one of the factors that has weighed most heavily on the general inflation rate. In October, the impact was so significant that it forced the central bank to raise the Selic rate to 11,25%, in an attempt to control rising prices.
But what does this mean for your wallet? With the cost of beef skyrocketing, other sources of protein, such as chicken and pork, are also likely to become more expensive. This is because, given the high price of beef, many consumers end up switching to cheaper options, which increases demand and, consequently, the prices of these alternatives.
Uninspiring forecasts for 2025
If you think the current scenario is already complicated, projections for 2025 indicate that the increase in meat prices will be even more intense. The cost of beef is estimated to rise by up to 16,8% next year, while chicken and pork are expected to register increases of 11% and 13%, respectively.
This means that barbecues, which are already a burden on the budget, could become a real luxury. And that's not all: inflation is projected to be around 2025% for 4, but food prices are expected to rise by more than 7,4%, driven mainly by meat. If the forecasts are confirmed, we will be facing the biggest increase in meat prices in five years, since the record high of 17,97% in 2020.
What's behind the 2025 scenario?
Several factors contribute to the projected increase in meat prices for 2025. Among them is the combination of a stronger dollar — which makes inputs for feed production more expensive, for example — and the limited supply of cattle on the domestic market. The appreciation of the dollar also impacts the cost of importing machinery and technology for the agricultural sector, making production even more expensive.
Another critical point is the climate. The severe drought that affected pastures in 2023 could be repeated in the coming years, creating a scenario of uncertainty and price volatility. lack of rain not only harms the quality of pastures but also reduces the productivity of farms, making it difficult to recover livestock stocks.
The future of meat in Brazil
Although projections show a challenging scenario, it is important to remember that the meat market in Brazil is highly dynamic. Measures such as expanding irrigated pastures and investing in technology to improve productivity can help reduce costs in the medium and long term.
However, until these solutions become a reality, consumers will need to adapt to the new normal of prices. With rising meat prices pushing up inflation, the challenge will be to balance quality food with budget control.
