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For the first time in a decade, oil surpasses soybeans and takes the top spot in Brazilian exports. With growing production and sustainable characteristics, the pre-salt layer places Brazil among the giants of the global market. Will soybeans be able to regain the throne or will oil come to dominate once and for all?
Who would have thought that Brazil, a giant known for its vast soybean and sugar cane plantations, would see oil assume the position of absolute leader in exports?
The product, which for years occupied secondary positions, left behind the hegemony of soy and achieved leadership in revenue for the first time in recent history.
Behind this transformation is a combination of factors ranging from high global demand to the efficiency of national production. But what does this change mean for the country's economic future?
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In 2024, oil surpassed soybeans as Brazil's main export product, reaching record revenues.
According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (secex), from January to November this year, the country exported 85,45 million tons of oil, an increase of 14,4% compared to the same period in 2023.
In financial terms, this represented US$42,76 billion in revenue, surpassing the US$42,08 billion generated by soybeans.
This historic milestone reflects an unprecedented scenario in more than a decade, in which oilseeds dominated the Brazilian export agenda.
Oil's unexpected leadership
Although oil had already threatened to lead in previous years, there was always another competitor that surpassed it, such as iron ore.
This time, however, the increase in production and the specific characteristics of Brazilian oil were decisive, as highlighted by Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP).
He explained that oil extracted from pre-salt layers emits less CO₂ compared to oil from other countries, meeting the growing decarbonization demands of the international market.
Soybeans, on the other hand, faced a difficult harvest due to drought, with shipments falling 1,3% in the same period.
Furthermore, oilseed prices fell by 17%, further damaging its competitiveness.
National production on the rise
Brazil ends 2024 with a prominent position in the global oil market.
The country's production already exceeds 3,5 million barrels per day and is expected to exceed 4 million in 2025, according to IBP projections.
Large investments in the pre-salt layer, led by Petrobras and other companies in the sector, could increase production to more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030.
This trajectory places Brazil among the five largest global producers, potentially surpassing countries such as Iraq and China.
“We are experiencing a very significant ramp-up in oil production.
It is something that has everything to continue in the coming years, considering the global demand and the competitiveness of our product”, stated Ardenghy.
Why is Brazilian oil so competitive?
O oil extracted from the Brazilian pre-salt layer has a characteristic that makes it extremely desirable in the international market: low carbon intensity.
National production emits, on average, less than 20 kg of CO₂ per barrel of oil equivalent, while in Canada, for example, this number reaches 45 kg.
This meets the demands of refineries and petrochemical plants looking for more sustainable sources.
Furthermore, the growth in global demand for oil, especially in Asian markets, should sustain the pace of Brazilian exports in the coming years.
Even with discussions on energy transition, the expectation is that oil consumption will remain high in the medium term.
Can soybeans still regain their position?
Despite losing its leadership position, soybeans are not out of the game. The sector expects an increase of more than 10% in production in 2025, driven by the recovery in productivity.
However, outperforming oil will be a challenge, especially if oilseed prices fail to recover.
Meanwhile, oil is consolidating itself as a key component of the Brazilian economy, representing not only a significant source of revenue, but also a strategic advantage in the global energy scenario.
What do you think about this historic change? Will oil continue to be the absolute leader, or does soy have a chance of reclaiming its position in the coming years? Leave your opinion in the comments!
What the post doesn't say is that Brazil imports diesel and oil too.
So Soybeans remain unbeatable considering the Exp x Imp Balance
Even so, Brazil is still a poor country.