English 
Spanish 
3 min read
0 comments
New projection driven by stronger than expected production in October, according to OPEC's monthly report.
A OPEC raised its expectation for the supply of liquid fuels in Brazil in 30 by 2023 thousand barrels per day (bpd), to an average of 4,1 million bpd, in a monthly report published this Wednesday, 13th. of 400 bpd compared to the previous year, and is influenced by the 'stronger than expected' production seen in October, says the cartel.
In your monthly report published this Wednesday, 13th, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that it expects even higher production in the fourth quarter of this year, due to the opening of new units, improved performance of existing assets and few maintenance events.
OPEC maintains expectations of an increase in oil production in 2024
For 2024, the Organization of Exporting Countries of Oil (Opec) maintained its expectation of an increase of 120 thousand barrels in the annual comparison, reaching 4,2 million bpd. Brazilian production fell by 135 thousand bpd in October, to an average of 3,5 million bpd. The production of liquefied natural gas it was practically stable, at 80 thousand bpd, and should remain that way in November.
- Petrobras and Brazil excited: oil discovery in Africa could indicate the existence of a possible 'pre-salt successor' in Brazil
- US sanctions on Iran send oil prices soaring as China seeks alternatives amid global supply crunch
- US hits Russian oil hard and historic sanctions reshape global energy market.
- Home office at Petrobras? No way! The state-owned company has announced that it will increase the workload of its employees. See the changes
Production of liquid fuels and economic prospects
Brazil's total production of liquid fuels fell by 134 thousand bpd in October, to an average of 4,3 million bpd. According to OPEC, the numbers still represent a strong level of Brazilian production, as they remain close to the record level reached in September, of 4,4 million bpd. Furthermore, the cartel maintained its forecast for the growth of Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023, at 2,5%, according to the monthly report. For 2024, the expectation is for an increase in Brazilian GDP of 1,2%.
Prospects for economic growth and inflation in Brazil
According to OPEC's monthly report, Brazil's economic growth is expected to remain stable until the end of this year, despite recent data from the fourth quarter suggesting 'a small slowdown'. The cartel predicts that the strength of activity will reside in robust domestic demand and the industrial sector, observing positive signs in the recovery of purchasing managers' indexes (PMI), acceleration in consumer confidence and cooling of inflation. For 2023, the forecast is that inflation will slow to around 4% and stabilize at around 3,5% in 2024 – both below previous forecasts of 5% and 4%, respectively, suggesting 'a favorable trajectory' for prices .
Forecast for interest rates and fiscal discipline
Despite projecting a slowdown in inflation and continued interest cuts by the Brazilian Central Bank, OPEC raised its forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2024, from 8% in the September estimates to 10%. The change suggests that the cartel expects a slower pace in reducing Brazilian interest rates over the next year, although it maintains the expectation that rates will end 2023 at 12,25%. OPEC warns that 'there is a note of uncertainty related to fiscal discipline' and assesses that this factor also implies uncertainty for the economic scenario.
Source: CNN Brazil
