Chinese (Simplified) 
Chinese (Traditional) 
English 
French 
Alemão 
Italian 
Japanese 
Norwegian 
Spanish 
4 min read
0 comments
Oil hits lowest level since May amid US-China trade war and IEA warning of global oversupply that could affect Brazil.
The oil market experienced one of the most tense days of 2025. This Tuesday, October 15, futures contracts for Brent, a global benchmark, fell 0,8% and closed trading at its lowest level since May 7, while the WTI, the American benchmark, fell 0,7%, also hitting its lowest level in more than five months. The movement reflects a combination of factors: the intensification of trade war between the United States and China, the fear of global oversupply and the slowdown in global energy consumption.
The analysis was published by money times based on data from International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned of the risk of a structural oil surplus in 2026 — a scenario that could trigger a new round of price volatility and pressure on exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Brazil.
Trade tensions return to the center of the market
The recent diplomatic escalation between Washington and Beijing has rekindled risk aversion among investors. The U.S. government is threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese technology products, and in response, Beijing has signaled that it may restrict strategic exports. rare metals and semiconductors.
-
Chevron closes purchase of blocks 9 and 10 in Suriname — 5.456 km² and 30% operational coverage reinforce advances in the Guyana-Suriname basin.
-
ANP (National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels) against the municipality of Lamarão, in Bahia: understand the court decision to block the improper payment of oil royalties.
-
Even with the global drop in oil prices, Petrobras maintains gasoline prices higher than the international benchmark, according to Ineep.
-
Optimism about the reopening of the US government is driving up oil prices.
The immediate effect was a wave of corrections in commodity markets, especially oil, which acts as a thermometer of global confidence.
According to Reuters analysts, the possibility of new customs barriers reduces expectations for growth in industrial demand, especially in Asia, a region responsible for more than 55% of world oil consumption.
"Every new tariff between the two largest economies on the planet is interpreted as a potential brake on the global economic recovery," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities at ING.
Global supply increases faster than demand
The other factor that puts pressure on prices is the advancement of global production, especially in the United States and the Middle East.
The most recent report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that world production may exceed 104 million barrels per day in 2026, exceeding the estimated demand of 103 million barrels/day. This small imbalance, according to the agency, could drop the price of Brent to below US$70 if OPEC+ does not intervene with additional cuts.
The cartel itself has been struggling to maintain discipline among its members. Countries like Iran and Nigeria discreetly increased their production, while the Russia, even under sanctions, continues to export robust volumes to Asia, which contributes to the increase in supply.
The impact on Brazil and Petrobras
Brazil, which has established itself as one of the ten largest oil producers in the world, is also feeling the effects. Petrobras exports more than 70% of its crude oil production, mainly to China, and lower prices tend to reduce the state-owned company's revenue.
On the other hand, the fall in oil prices helps to contain the fuel price in the domestic market, reducing inflationary pressures and facilitating the work of the Central Bank.
Analysts at XP and Itaú BBA point out that if Brent remains between $ 75 and $ 80, the Brazilian government can maintain the fuel policy without significant transfers to the consumer.
Risk of “oversupply” worries the International Energy Agency
A IEA highlighted that the 2025 scenario is paradoxical: while some countries still face difficulties with domestic supply, the global market is beginning to move towards an excess of barrels.
This transition, according to the “Oil Market Outlook 2025” report, is expected to be accentuated with the entry of new platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, Guyana and the Brazilian pre-salt layer.
The agency also warned that global oil inventories have reached their highest level since 2020, which could put further pressure on prices in the coming months.
“If OPEC+ does not act in a coordinated manner, oil prices could fall below fiscal equilibrium levels in several producing countries,” the IEA warned.
A cheaper barrel, but with increasing volatility
Despite the recent drop, analysts believe oil should continue to fluctuate within a narrow range until the end of the year.
Economist Edward Moya of OANDA assesses that the market is divided between the fear of global recession e optimism about interest rate cuts in the US, which tend to weaken the dollar and make commodities more attractive.
“Volatility is likely to remain high until there is clarity on the pace of Federal Reserve cuts and the unfolding of Sino-US tensions,” Moya said.
According to projections compiled by Bloomberg, the average price of Brent should end 2025 in the range of US$82 to US$85 per barrel, with a tendency for a slight recovery from 2026 onwards, as long as there is no supply shock.
The focus now turns to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December, where possible further production cuts to stabilize the market will be discussed.
Meanwhile, Brazil continues to expand investments in exploration and exports, betting on pre-salt as a long-term strategic vector.
-
One person reacted to this.