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Petrobras could surprise the market with a possible distribution of US$19 billion, just over R$100 billion in dividends by 2025. With a potential yield of 20%, investors are euphoric.
When it comes to financial surprises, the Petrobrass may be about to put on a pyrotechnic show on the Brazilian stock market.
The oil giant, known for its corporate complexities and political challenges, is about to make a move that promises to leave many shareholders euphoric.
But what is the secret behind these impressive numbers? The answer may lie in the billion-dollar figures that the company can release in dividends by the beginning of 2025, creating an expectation that is stirring behind the scenes in the financial market.
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However, what exactly is behind this possible massive dividend distribution? According to Goldman Sachs, Petrobras could pay an impressive US$19 billion in shareholder remuneration by the first quarter of 2025.
This value translates into a dividend yield of around 20%, which places the company as one of the most generous on the global energy scene.
The estimate includes $8 billion in ordinary dividends, supplemented by share repurchases that result in an implied yield of approximately 9%.
Additionally, there is the possibility of $11 billion in extraordinary dividends, which could bring the total yield to around 11%.
The bank Goldman Sachs emphasizes that this estimate of US$19 billion should be seen as a potential ceiling, considering several variables.
According to the financial institution, the Petrobras would operate with the minimum level of cash required by management, which could limit the company's flexibility in periods of volatility.
Furthermore, the entry of new platforms in 2025, which involve leasing additions, could increase debt close to the US$65 billion limit.
This would potentially require prepayment of debt, reducing the availability of cash to distribute as dividends. Potential mergers and acquisitions could also consume part of the capital, further limiting the distribution of extra profits to shareholders.
Even with these considerations, the Goldman Sachs maintains a purchase recommendation for the state-owned company, establishing a target price of R$53 for PETR3 and R$48 for PETR4.
However, the bank's preference in the oil and gas sector is for Prio (PRIO3), suggesting diversification for investors.
Expectations are high for the numbers for the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24), which Petrobras should release on August 08, after the market closes.
Goldman Sachs' projection is for an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of around R$65 billion, slightly below the market consensus, which points to an average of 2% higher, according to data from Bloomberg.
According to Goldman Sachs, “According to the company’s shareholder remuneration policy and our updated estimates, this would imply the announcement of US$2,7 billion in dividends plus share repurchases.”
“As we estimate that the company carried out around US$100 million in share repurchases throughout the quarter, this in turn would imply the announcement of US$2,6 billion in dividends along with the results,” says the bank.
This possibility of extraordinary dividends is news that will certainly keep investors' eyes fixed on the company's next announcements. Will Petrobras really distribute these billion-dollar dividends, or will we see a strategy of reinvestment and expansion?
He has a friend of terrorists who is diverting profits from Petrobras.
It must be your father!
Mario, this friend must be the one who ate you behind the closet!!!
You messed with the alienated... lol
There is a bloodthirsty dictator friend who doesn't want Petrobras to distribute these dividends.