With Russia's economy facing stagnation, a falling ruble and record interest rate hikes, Sweden has turned to satellite imagery to expose signs of economic slowdown in Moscow, challenging the Kremlin's official figures.
Russiaโs economy is a puzzle to many. While the Kremlin insists on narratives of stability and resilience, the data shows worrying signs of a slowdown. After the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy seemed to be maintaining a fast pace with a โwar economy.โ But that is changing. Recent data indicate stagnation in civilian sectors and growing economic uncertainty.
The tensions between the economic elites are also rising. The ruble recently hit its lowest point in two years as businesses struggle with loans and payments. Is Russiaโs economy at a dead end?
Sanctions and war
There is no denying that Western sanctions have taken a toll on Russia. These restrictions have limited the countryโs options, reducing its ability to use military spending to sustain economic growth. Companies such as Russian Railways have seen significant drops in freight transport, cutting investment and raising prices.
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- Lack of labor reaches the South of the country, where it is difficult to find people to work in industry, construction and commerce
- Government chooses to build an underwater tunnel instead of a bridge due to a very unusual reason
In addition, the Russian Central Bank has sharply raised interest rates to 21 percent, the highest level since the fall of the Soviet Union. This increase, while necessary to control inflation, has made the economic environment even more challenging for the private sector. The combination of sanctions, inflation, and high rates makes it clear that the outlook is complicated.
Sweden's distrust of official Russian data
Sweden, on the other hand, does not trust the figures released by the Kremlin. Elisabeth Svantesson, Sweden's finance minister, pointed out glaring inconsistencies. According to her, the official figures indicating inflation of 9,5% do not match the reality of high interest rates, capital flight and drastic cuts in domestic consumption.
Svantesson argues that the Kremlin's narrative is constructed to appear resistant to sanctions, but the alternative economic data tell another story from Russia. This distrust has led Sweden to seek unconventional methods to assess the Russian economy.
Observing Moscow from space
If official data is unreliable, what can you do? Sweden has come up with a creative solution: satellite imagery. Comparing nighttime images of Moscow between 2021 and 2023, a significant reduction in lighting was observed, especially in the suburbs. This indicates lower energy consumption, reflecting a decline in economic activity.
But how are nighttime lights linked to Russiaโs economy? Itโs simple: brighter cities generally mean higher production and consumption. Dimming lights in Moscow could be a sign of power outages or even a shrinking local economy.
Narrative manipulation and the hidden truth
Despite the evidence, Russia continues to promote the idea that the Russian economy is stable. This narrative is crucial to maintaining domestic support and dissuading Ukraine and its allies from believing that sanctions are working. However, alternative analyses, such as satellite imagery, undermine this narrative.
Using creative methods, such as observing night lighting, highlights the importance to look beyond the official numbers. Itโs a clear metaphor: sometimes itโs necessary to โshine a light in the darknessโ to see the truth. Sweden has shown that when data is manipulated, space can offer a more accurate view of reality.
Russia is lost!!!
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