Global warming of 2,7°C poses a brutal threat to the future of humanity, according to scientists.
Humanity faces an increasingly uncertain and bleak future as scientists around the world warn of the devastating impacts of global warming. A new report, the State of the Climate 2024, reveals that we are approaching a temperature increase of 2,7 °C, a scenario almost twice as serious as that stipulated by Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit warming to 1,5 °C.
The report presents a series of alarming data and indicates that, even with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on a path that could make Earth's climate unrecognizable within decades.
The devastating reality of the climate crisis
You don’t have to look far to see the impacts of climate change. Devastating fires, increasingly intense tropical storms, prolonged droughts and the destruction of ecosystems are just some of the phenomena that have become more frequent.
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Here in Brazil, for example, unprecedented fires have destroyed vast areas of forest, and once mighty rivers, such as the São Francisco, are rapidly drying up.
The word “unprecedented” has been used extensively this year, especially in reference to extreme weather events like Hurricane Milton, which intensified unusually, and Super Typhoon Yagi, which caused extensive damage in Vietnam. These events are just a taste of what could come if global warming continues to advance.
On track for 2,7°C of warming
Global warming of 2,7°C is a catastrophic scenario that is increasingly close to becoming a reality. Despite promises made by governments around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the reality is that these emissions continue to rise.
Fossil fuel consumption, in particular, remains at record levels, despite the growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
The report reveals that while clean energy production has increased, it is still not enough to offset the massive use of fossil fuels, which is 14 times greater. This dependence on fossil fuels is pushing the planet towards a future of dangerously high temperatures.
In 2023 and 2024, global average daily temperatures have already reached record levels, with this year predicted to be the hottest on record.
The report also highlights that, of the 35 vital signs monitored on the planet, 25 have already reached record levels, all heading in the wrong direction.
Irreversible Impacts for Future Generations
Humans are not accustomed to living in extreme weather conditions. For the past 10.000 years, human civilization has thrived in a stable environment without drastic temperature swings. However, this equilibrium is at risk. Future generations, including the grandchildren of those alive today, will face a climate far more aggressive and inhospitable than anything our ancestors faced.
In addition to rising temperatures, there are other alarming consequences. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has surpassed 422 parts per million (ppm), a significant increase from the previous year, when it was at 418 ppm. Methane, an even more potent greenhouse gas, is also increasing at an alarming rate, despite global promises to address it.
Another factor that is worsening the crisis is the reduction of atmospheric aerosols, small particles that help cool the planet. While reducing pollution is a positive thing, the reduction of these aerosols means that global warming could accelerate even further, as they play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of global warming.
Deforestation and sea ice loss
Deforestation, particularly in the Amazon, is another factor that is accelerating global warming. Forests play an essential role in absorbing carbon dioxide, but the destruction of these critical areas is undermining the planet’s ability to deal with emissions, creating a vicious cycle.
As the climate warms, more trees die, which in turn increases global temperatures.
The loss of sea ice is also amplifying warming. When ice melts, it exposes dark ocean water, which absorbs more sunlight, further warming the planet.
This change in albedo (the ability to reflect sunlight) accelerates global warming significantly.
The future of coastal communities with global warming
As temperatures rise, sea levels are also rising. In the coming decades, millions of people living in coastal areas will be at risk of displacement as flooding becomes more frequent and severe.
Communities around the world, from small islands in the Pacific to large coastal cities, will face unprecedented challenges.
COP29, which will take place in Azerbaijan next month, will be a crucial opportunity for world leaders to take more aggressive and coordinated action to mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, without much stronger policies and concrete action, the future looks increasingly bleak.
Time is running out, and the planet as we know it may be on the brink of irreversible transformation.