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The reduction in oil demand is a direct reflection of the transport revolution in the world's largest market and new investments in electric cars, analysts emphasize.
China's strong embrace of clean mobility is changing projections in the global energy market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Electric and plug-in hybrid car sales surge in China directly contributed to a 400 barrel-per-day drop in global oil demand by 2024.
In October of the same year, the Asian country registered 1,43 million electrified vehicles sold, breaking consecutive monthly records. The reduction in domestic consumption of fossil fuels directly affects the volume of refining, especially diesel, and influences the planning decisions of several oil producers and exporters.
China accelerates transport revolution with electric cars and high-speed rail network
A China's transport revolution has two clear pillars: the mass replacement of combustion vehicles with electric models and the expansion of a robust high-speed rail network. Both reduce dependence on petroleum derivatives in urban and intercity transport.
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High-speed rail carried more than 872 million passengers in the summer of 2024 alone, representing a 6,2% increase over the previous year. At the same time, more than 50% of cars sold in the country in the last quarter were electric or plug-in hybrids. This structural change alters the traditional logic of oil consumption in growing economies.
Soaring electric car sales in China drive down diesel consumption and slow refining
Reports from Reuters and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate that diesel refining in China has fallen by as much as 13% in some regions compared to 2023. electric car sales soar It shifts the need to supply light vehicles and, combined with the decline in the construction and cargo transportation sector, reduces activity in refineries.
In addition to cars, the growing use of electric buses and hybrid commercial vehicles is also contributing to this shift. China is progressively replacing public fleets and urban logistics vehicles with electrified models, further putting pressure on demand for diesel.
Reduction in oil demand exposes new phase of Chinese economic growth
The relationship between growth of TAX ID No and oil consumption has always been used as a parameter in the global economy. However, the reduction in oil demand in China points to a new cycle in which economic growth does not necessarily require greater fossil energy consumption.
The IEA and EIA estimate that Chinese oil demand growth in 2024 will be just 1,1%, which represents an increase of 180 barrels per day — a modest number considering the country's history. This contrasts with the historical average for China, which for decades accounted for more than 60% of the global increase in oil consumption.
Soaring sales of electric cars and slowdown in the logistics sector shape new consumption patterns
The slowdown in the logistics sector and the surge in electric car sales in China are creating a new pattern of energy consumption. The construction industry, a major consumer of diesel and fuel for heavy machinery, is in decline. At the same time, passenger transport is migrating to more sustainable modes.
With the drop in fuel combustion in sectors such as road, civil and passenger transport, the tendency is for the need to import and refine oil to stabilize, forcing a reassessment of the long-term strategies of large producers.
Reduction in global oil demand puts pressure on exporters and affects prices
The decrease in demand from China directly affects the balance of global supply. The reduction of 400 barrels per day, driven by the Chinese transition, is already influencing future prices and leading producing countries to review expansion plans.
The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other exporting nations are watching this move with caution. Dependence on markets like China has always supported long-term forecasts based on continued demand. Now, with the consolidation of transport revolution by non-polluting means, these projections are being recalculated.
Electric cars, high-speed trains drive China's energy transition
With ambitious goals for carbon neutrality, China has been investing heavily in the electrification of mobility. High-speed trains represent an important part of this policy, not only because they reduce the use of cars over long distances, but also as a symbol of technological modernity.
Furthermore, electric vehicles are becoming increasingly affordable, with compact models, SUVs and pickup trucks being mass-produced by local automakers such as BYD, NIO and Geely. A strong state presence in the sector and coordinated industrial policies are helping to accelerate this transition.
China’s transport revolution could redefine the world’s energy future
The drop in oil consumption in China, caused by the surge in electric car sales, is not an isolated phenomenon. It is a profound transformation in the country's energy pattern with the potential to influence the entire global scenario.
Experts say that if the trend continues, other countries will also have to review their energy policies, preparing for a new reality in which demand for oil does not grow in proportion to the economy.
The progress of China's transportation revolution shows that innovation, infrastructure and well-coordinated public policies can reshape a nation's energy mix in just a few years — and with effects that spread far beyond its borders.
