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With production already exceeding 650 barrels per day, Guyana is consolidating itself as a new powerhouse in the oil in South America, projects growth of 10,3% in 2025 and rekindles territorial dispute with Venezuela
A Guyana, a small South American country of British origin, became in just a few years one of the continent's greatest economic phenomena. Driven by an explosive advance in the extraction of oil, the Guyanese economy is expected to grow 10,3% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — four times more than Brazil, which has a projection of 2,5%.
The pace is sustained by billion-dollar investments from ExxonMobil and new offshore exploration fields, capable of taking the country to produce 1,5 million barrels per day by 2029The abrupt transformation rekindled the neighbor's greed Venezuela, which claims part of the territory Guyanese and sees the oil advance as a strategic threat.
Guyana's historic leap forward driven by oil
Until 2019, Guyana did not produce a drop of oil.
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In less than six years, it went from being a peripheral economy to one of the most dynamic in the world, registering 63% growth in 2022.
This leap was made possible by discoveries in deep waters of the Atlantic and by exploration agreements with the American company ExxonMobil, which operates the main blocks in the region.
The most recent project, called Hammerhead, was authorized in September and should significantly expand national production capacity.
With it, the government estimates to surpass 1,5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, consolidating the country among the largest per capita producers on the planet.
The oil sector alone already accounts for more than 70% of Guyana's GDP.
Economic growth four times higher than that of Brazil
IMF projections place Guyana at the top of South America's growth rankings by 2025.
While the Guyana is expected to advance 10,3%, Brazil projects 2,5%, and countries like Chile and Argentina are below 3%.
The combination of high royalties, rising revenue and foreign direct investment creates an expansion cycle that does not yet show signs of exhaustion.
However, economists warn that accelerated growth brings risks typical of commodity-dependent economies, such as abrupt variations in the price of a barrel e structural inflation in sectors not linked to oil.
The challenge now is to transform the boom into productive diversification and avoid the so-called “Dutch disease” — a phenomenon in which the abundance of natural resources weakens other economic activities.
Venezuela reacts and intensifies dispute over Essequibo
The rise of Guyana also ignited geopolitical alerts.
Venezuela, which claims the region of Essequibo, equivalent to two-thirds of the Guyanese territory, recently passed a law that annex the area as a new Venezuelan state.
The movement sparked protests from Georgetown and an immediate response from the international community.
In March, Nicolás Maduro reinforced the rhetoric of sovereignty over the region, claiming that Guyana was “handing over Venezuelan resources” to foreign companies.
The United States reacted firmly, warning that an attack on Guyana or ExxonMobil would have “grave consequences.”
The impasse exposes the new correlation of energy forces in South America, where a previously peripheral country challenges Venezuela's historic monopoly in the regional oil market.
A new South American energy powerhouse
Guyana is part of a changing energy map.
The country, with just over 800 thousand inhabitants, is on its way to becoming the largest oil power per capita in the world.
Large-scale revenue inflow allows the government to finance infrastructure, health and education, although experts warn against risk of income concentration e institutional fragility in the face of the flow of foreign capital.
With exports growing and reserves still expanding, the country must maintain record fiscal and external surpluses until the end of the decade.
For investors and governments, Guyana represents the new South American energy epicenter, capable of redefining the balance between Venezuela, Brazil and the United States in the region.
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