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Trump's promise to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in one day is bold, but still shrouded in mystery

Written by Bruno Castilho
Published 07/11/2024 às 14:17
Trump's promise to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in one day is bold, but still shrouded in mystery
Trump promised to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine within 24 hours – What now? (Image: Reproduction)

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to resolve Russia’s invasion of Ukraine within 24 hours, criticizing Biden’s approach and suggesting that the United States should adopt a less interventionist strategy. Now that Trump is elected, the question arises: how does he plan to deliver on that promise, and what impact will this decision have on global geopolitics?

Trump’s criticism of Biden’s strategy of investing billions in military and financial aid to Ukraine reflects his position that such unstinting support for Kiev increases the risk of global escalation, including a possible World War III. He says the current commitment of American resources is excessive, and his plan would involve a quick negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. But the details of how he intends to carry out this promise remain unclear.

Trump’s stance of resolving Russia’s invasion of Ukraine quickly has raised questions about the viability and morality of his strategy. In his speeches, he has avoided revealing details about his planned tactics, stating that he would keep this information confidential to maximize its effectiveness. The central question is how he will deal with advisers with different views, such as Mike Pompeo and Richard Grenell. Pompeo, who is more conventional, believes that a territorial concession to Russia would be a dangerous precedent, especially in contexts such as Taiwan. Grenell, on the other hand, appears willing to adopt a more flexible approach, which could involve pressuring Kiev to accept territorial concessions in exchange for peace, a move considered risky by many critics.

How will Trump end the Russian invasion of Ukraine in just 24 hours?

Among the proposals discussed in Trump’s circle, a controversial idea is to freeze the conflict at the current level, recognizing Russia’s occupation of approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and suspending Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO for 20 years. Such a proposal is intended to temporarily stabilize the region, but it has profound implications.

On the one hand, it would reduce human and material losses; on the other, it would consolidate Russia’s territorial gains, which would amount to a strategic victory for Moscow. Another suggested option is to create a 1200-km demilitarized zone, to be patrolled by European forces, with peacekeeping responsibilities transferred to countries such as Poland, Germany, the United Kingdom and France, reinforcing Trump’s view that the United States should not bear these costs.

The complexity of negotiations with Russia and the international repercussions

While Trump has proposed making arms deliveries conditional on Ukraine’s willingness to enter into negotiations, critics warn that this could force Kiev to give up key territories. Russia, for its part, has maintained a firm stance, making clear that its goals in the “special military operation,” as it calls the Russian invasion of Ukraine, remain unchanged.

Dmitry Medvedev, a key Kremlin figure, has said Russia is not willing to back down. On the European side, resistance to a deal that favors Russia is strong, with leaders such as Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen reinforcing that any decision must be approved by Kiev, maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty as a priority.

Zelensky's Dilemma and the Future of the Western Alliance

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a complicated scenario. While he acknowledges the importance of American support, he must deal with a population that largely rejects any deal that involves giving up territory to Russia. Zelensky recently congratulated Trump on his election and stressed a commitment to peace through force, in an attempt to keep dialogue open and calm public opinion.

Trump's return to the White House could represent a turning point for the war, not only impacting Russia's invasion of Ukraine but also redefining the balance of international alliances.

The next steps in international politics

With Trump back in charge, the world is watching closely to see how he will deal with domestic expectations and diplomatic pressures over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His proposals, while focused on a swift resolution of the conflict, involve profound risks that could alter the balance of power in Europe and affect global strategic alliances.

The viability of a negotiated peace remains uncertain, and Trump will have to balance the demands of his advisers, resistance from Kiev and Moscow, and the resilience of Western allies. to define the future of the region.

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Bruno Castilho

Journalist focusing on oil and gas, investments and opportunities in the national market.

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