English 
Spanish 
4 min read
1 comments
Who will take the White House? AI predicts the winner between Trump and Kamala Harris in the next US elections!
The 2024 US election race is shaping up to be one of the tightest in decades, especially with uncertainty surrounding the results of the “pendulum states” decisive. With just a few days left until the polls close, the Donald Trump e Kamala Harris they follow side by side, fighting for support in regions where any vote can decide the outcome of American elections.
At the moment, the vice president Kamala Harris leads the race, albeit by a narrow margin.
Most polls show a technical tie between the two candidates, with Kamala Harris having a slight lead. However, the distance between the two candidates is decreasing with each passing day.
- Parlous state — Some of the US Navy’s military power is in dire condition, report says
- MASS LAYOFFS: Amid crises, Airbus Group announces the layoff of more than 2.000 employees!
- Discover the countries that do not have armed forces: Oasis of peace or dangerous vulnerability?
- Want to live in the United States? Trump wants to end birthright citizenship
AI predicts who will win the US elections
With the world full of AI, this new technology can help better understand the US election scenario. According to a recent analysis carried out using artificial intelligence (AI).
The survey shows an advantage for Harris over former President Donald Trump, with a predicted 276 Electoral College votes against 262 for the Republican candidate.
This analysis was carried out by betting company Bonus Code Bets, which used OpenAI's ChatGPT AI model to compile polling data, demographics and electoral histories in each state.
Key states in the US election race
The states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada appear to be the main battlegrounds in this election, slightly favoring Harris.
On the other hand, Trump is showing promising performance in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, states where the Republican presence remains strong. With the swing states divided, any swing in votes could define the outcome.
Even with Harris' slight lead in the polls — where she appears with 48,1% of voting intentions against Trump's 46,7% — the Electoral College system complicates predictions.
This is because the winner of the election could lose the popular vote, as happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton. Therefore, Harris' advantage in the popular vote may not be enough to secure victory.
According to the forecast by FiveThirtyEight, one of the main electoral analysis platforms, Trump would have a 52% chance of victory, while Harris appears with 48%.
The use of AI in electoral analysis
Bonus Code Bets asked ChatGPT to forecast state-by-state results using public polling data, demographic information, and the current campaign context.
The goal was to simulate a forecast with greater accuracy than traditional methods, even considering recent events that directly influence the local vote.
The result was a projection that suggested Harris, albeit by a narrow margin, would win with a margin of 14 Electoral College votes — the third-smallest margin in American history.
According to the betting company, the use of an AI tool like ChatGPT brings a new perspective to the political scene, where the behavior of the electorate can be studied in greater detail.
AI can cross-reference a wide range of data, from urban versus rural population density to approval ratings across different age groups, expanding understanding of how each state might vote.
The influence of major cities
Analyzing the data, Bonus Code Bets pointed out that Harris' victory in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania essentially depends on the support of large cities.
In Michigan, the Democratic advantage in Detroit and Ann Arbor would be crucial to offsetting Republican preference in rural areas.
In Pennsylvania, cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are expected to play a similar role, being key to ensuring a narrow victory for Harris in the state.
However, Trump remains very popular in rural areas and Rust Belt strongholds, which historically lean toward conservatism.
Controversial statements heat up the electoral scenario
In the final week before the US election, both Biden and Trump have drawn attention for controversial statements. Biden recently sparked controversy when he appeared to label Trump supporters as “trash” during a virtual conference call, although his communications team said he was referring to hate speech at a recent rally in Madison Square Garden.
This type of statement, however, can have negative impacts, particularly in areas of the country where political polarization is most intense.
On the other side, Trump, at his own rally, received criticism after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made derogatory comments about Puerto Rico, which were seen as insensitive and even xenophobic.
In such a tight electoral environment, these controversies could affect the decision of undecided voters and influence the final election numbers.
Odds of winning and betting market predictions in the American elections
The betting market also reflects the balance of the contest, with bookmakers such as Bet365 and Paddy Power constantly adjusting the odds of victory.
On Tuesday, Trump's odds of winning were 1-2 (66,7%), but by early Wednesday morning, they had risen to 67,7% and 69,2%, respectively, indicating an increase in bets on the Republican's victory.
Given this scenario, any turnaround in the “pendulum states” could define the outcome of the 2024 election.
I loved visiting your blog, it has a lot of very interesting articles. Portable vs. Installed