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This article analyzes how the victory of Donald Trump and the recent decisions of the American Central Bank can impact the economy of EUA, relations with the Russia and immigration and defense policies.
The United States Federal Reserve recently announced a new reduction in the interest rate. The decision to cut 0,25 percentage points was smaller than expected, but it is another step in the attempt to sustain the American economy.
These adjustments come after a long period of stability, and the market is now eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's next moves, especially considering the impact of the return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
Trump has already stated that his government will prioritize protectionist policies to strengthen domestic production. With a leadership that values economic independence, his return could mean new pressures on the American Central Bank to maintain a monetary policy that favors domestic growth.
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Trump and the Relationship with Russia: The Economic Cold War and Sanctions
Trump's election has brought to light the possibility of reconfiguring relations between the EUA and Russia. During his campaign, Trump signaled that if elected, he would seek resolve international conflicts more directly and quickly, including the clash between Russia and Ukraine.
With a less predictable posture than that of Joe Biden, Trump reinforces an image of an “unpredictable man”, which could be a determining factor in international relations.
Under Biden, the economic sanctions against Russia have been intensified, directly affecting the Russian economy. However, Trump believes that his strong diplomacy and negotiating style could open doors for new agreements and even ease some of these sanctions, as long as it is in exchange for economic or political compensation. For the Russia, the scenario with Trump represents a new hope for economic flexibility.
The Promise of Economic Growth with Immigrant Labor
One of the most complex issues facing the Trump administration has always been immigration. During his campaign, Trump was explicit in stating that he would seek to reduce the entry of cheap immigrant labor illegal.
Yet many sectors of the American economy rely heavily on this workforce, which fills essential roles but which American workers often reject.
Studies indicate that illegal immigration has both positive and negative economic impacts. While it helps sustain the growth of the US economy, EUA by boosting the consumer market and offering labor for key sectors, it is also an issue that sparks debates about security and competitiveness.
NATO, Europe and Defense Expectations
Another central point of discussions about Trump's presidency is the role of the US in NATO. Trump has already made it clear that he expects European countries to shoulder a larger share of military spending, rather than relying on American military support.
For him, it is essential that Europe realizes the need to invest in its own defense, thus strengthening NATO with a fairer and more balanced participation.
If European nations heed this call and increase their military investment, the NATO alliance could emerge stronger. On the other hand, the cost to these countries would also be significant, challenging economies that still rely on American support today.
The Trump Transition and the Global Economic Impacts
Trump's return could have repercussions on several fronts of the global economy. From imposing tariffs to protect the domestic market to cutting red tape for small entrepreneurs, Trump's economic agenda promises substantial changes.
In a scenario where economic sanctions and strict immigration policies are high on the agenda, the international community is closely watching what this new phase of the Trump administration will bring to global trade and the geopolitical balance.
Tensions with China could also increase, as Trump has already signaled that he intends to review trade relations with the Asian country. This could have direct consequences for the global market, as the US is one of the world's largest importers, and any restrictions on international trade could impact not only the American economy, but also the stability of emerging and developed markets.
