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Armenian Foreign Minister says peace with Azerbaijan is near, but internal resistance, controversial demands and public distrust maintain climate of uncertainty in the country
On April 14, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan declared that the peace with Azerbaijan has never been so close. The announcement generated international repercussions and renewed hopes for a definitive end to the conflict in the Caucasus region. However, the minister's optimism is not shared by part of the Armenian population, who still see the process with different eyes.
Historical conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh
The conflict between the two countries revolves around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, located on Azerbaijani territory but historically populated by ethnic Armenians. The conflict first began in the late 1980s, after the region's parliament voted to unify with Armenia.
In 1994, a Russian-brokered ceasefire gave Armenians control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation remained tense until 2020, when Azerbaijan launched a new offensive to reclaim the lost territories. The war did not result in the complete recapture of the region.
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In 2023, Azerbaijani troops launched a surprise attack to retake Artsakh, the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh. The attack caused the flight of more than 100 ethnic Armenians, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The displaced people sought refuge mainly in Armenia.
Peace agreement finalized
In March this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached the final text of a peace agreement. The plan envisages the possibility of ethnic Armenians returning to their homes in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Since then, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has declared that he is ready to sign the agreement, with only the date and location remaining to be defined.
To move forward with the treaty, Armenia must accept conditions imposed by the government of Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. These include creating a land corridor linking the Nakhchivan exclave to Azerbaijan and reforming the Armenian constitution.
Constitutional change and popular resistance to the peace agreement
The Constitution of Armenia refers to the Declaration of Independence, which recognizes the rights of Armenian citizens, including those living in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan sees the text as a territorial claim. Pashinyan said he was in favor of removing the references, but the measure would require popular approval in a plebiscite.
Surveys show that more than 90% of the Armenian population is against the constitutional change. This rejection widens the gap between the government and the population regarding the peace process.
Zagezur Corridor sparks controversy
Another controversial demand is the creation of the so-called Zagezur corridor, which would link Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan, cutting through Armenian territory.
For the Azerbaijani government, the proposal represents a direct link without the need to involve Iran. However, for many Armenians, it would compromise the country's sovereignty.
Political sectors and a large part of the population see the project as a threat to Armenia's territorial integrity. There are fears that the corridor will allow an Azerbaijani military presence on Armenian soil.
As an alternative, the Armenian government has proposed a rail connection with Baku. So far, Azerbaijan has not formally responded to the offer.
Accusations of violations and cultural erasure
Even with the peace plan in place, tensions continue. In recent days, the Azerbaijani government has accused Armenian troops of violating the ceasefire on the border.
Armenia has denounced episodes of destruction of Armenian cultural symbols in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would be an attempt to erase the historical presence of the Armenian population in the region.
Uncertain future
Despite the proximity of the agreement, obstacles remain. Internal rejection of the constitutional reform, the controversy surrounding the Zagezur corridor and mutual accusations between the countries still hinder the achievement of peace.
With information from Metrópoles.
