According to analysts, the energy transition and various changes in the energy matrix will change, due to the effects caused by the pandemic and the war in Russia

With the pandemic and the war in Russia, countries will be able to change their energy matrices, the so-called energy transition

The combination of the effects of the pandemic and Russia's war with Ukraine will change the way countries direct the so-called energy transition, change of the energy, to combat climate change, according to data provided by experts to CNN Brasil Business.

The term “energy transition” refers to the process of modifying the energy matrix of a country, more recently specifying the replacement of polluting sources by clean energy sources, such as wind, solar and hydroelectric energy.

This energy transition process, which is still new, may gain new concepts after the events of recent years, such as the war and the pandemic, incorporating a term that has been used again: energy security.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) exposed a report this first week of August where it states that demand for energy from coal in 2022 could reach the highest level ever recorded in 2002.

The record for this energy use comes as many countries seek to manage emissions of polluting gases, with coal being one of the most harmful sources to the environment.

In the same document, the IEA comments that the energy transition is linked to the change in posture of countries after the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

For specialists, the energy transition is not over and is necessary to avoid even more extreme changes in the global climate, but there is still no way to know how fast it may be after the crises caused by the war and the pandemic.

Energy transition after the consequences of the war and the pandemic could come more safely

The big change in the pattern for the energy transition, according to the director of the Brazilian Energy Center (Cbie) Adriano Pires, came with the war between Ukraine and Russia, since it began to be essential to reconcile climate concerns with supply power.

The director also states that the trend now is for a safer energy transition. “Fossil fuels have regained a certain protagonism and the current scenario shows that they were demonized too quickly”.

Adriano also hopes that countries will seek to build increasingly diversified energy matrices, including fossil fuels, in order to compensate for the vulnerability of each type of energy source.

As renewable energy, for example, have intermittency as their main problem, with an energy generation capacity that depends on factors such as rainfall, wind and sun intensity, while fossil fuels have risk factors that involve price, supply and pollution.

Therefore, the director considers that while renewable sources do not provide security of supply for countries that want to enter the energy transition, the use of fossil fuels will continue.

For an expert, countries should invest in energy transition due to the price of fossil fuels

For Edmilson Moutinho, professor at IEE-USP, the signs in the economy have been gradual, but with the aim of stimulating investments in other types of energy due to the jump in oil prices with the war and the pandemic.

This reaction, however, is long-term and diverges from countries' short-term efforts. China, for example, switched back to coal when it failed to meet the country's demand for renewable energy and natural gas.

European countries, especially Germany, have reactivated their oil and coal-fired thermal power plants, while Russia has exceeded the supply of gas, promising that the action is temporary.

In Moutinho's opinion, natural gas is the non-renewable energy source most benefited by the new scenario because it is less polluting than oil and coal, and it is now considered safe and important in the energy transition after the war and pandemic.

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