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At up to 100 meters wide, asteroid 2024YR4 has a 1 in 88 chance of hitting Earth in December 2032! It already tops the list of most dangerous asteroids and will be closely monitored in the coming years!
Have you ever thought about looking up at the sky and knowing that, somewhere in space, an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth? It sounds like a scene from a movie, right? But asteroid 2024YR4 is not. Discovered in December 2024, it already tops the list of space objects that require special attention. With an estimated diameter of between 40 and 100 meters, it has a 1,136% chance of hitting us on December 22, 2032. Translated into a more tangible number: 1 in 88 chance of impact.
The discovery of Asteroid 2024YR4
On the night of December 27, 2034, the ATLAS telescopes in Chile captured an unusual object crossing the sky. After detailed analysis, astronomers confirmed it: it was a new asteroid, now named 2024YR4.
What caught the attention of the scientific community was not only the size of the asteroid, but also its worrying orbital trajectory. According to current calculations, there is a small but real possibility of impact with Earth in 2032. This was enough to put it at the top of the list of “bad asteroids”, that is, those that should be monitored closely.
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Real risk or unnecessary alarm?
A 1,136% chance may seem small, but in the world of astronomy, it’s a significant number. To put it in perspective, that’s almost a 99% chance that the asteroid will pass by without causing damage. However, because the trajectory can change over time, scientists need to closely monitor each new piece of data.
According to Futuro Prossimo, in the Turin Index, a system that classifies the danger of asteroids, 2024YR4 received a level 3, which means that it is an object that deserves attention, but not a reason to panic. It is worth remembering that a few years ago, the asteroid Apophis also caused concern before calculations confirmed that it did not pose an immediate risk.
Another important factor: Before 2032, the asteroid will make a closest pass to Earth on December 17, 2028, without any risk of impact. This event will be crucial to refine the calculations and better understand whether we should be concerned or not.
The science of planetary defense
If the risk is confirmed, do we have any chance against an asteroid of this size? The good news is that, unlike what happened with the dinosaurs, we have science on our side.
In 2022, NASA conducted a first-of-its-kind experiment: the DART Mission, which intentionally collided with an asteroid to divert its trajectory. The test was a success and proved that if we detect an asteroid early enough, we can use technology to prevent the impact.
If necessary, techniques like this could be applied to 2024YR4, diverting its path away from Earth. It is worth remembering that, even if it were to hit our planet, it would not be a global threat – the impact would cause regional damage, but nothing comparable to the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, which was more than 10 kilometers in diameter.
The future of observation and the importance of space surveillance
The detection of 2024YR4 reinforces an essential point: We need to continue investing in asteroid monitoring technology. The fact that we identified this object almost a decade in advance shows that space surveillance systems are working.
This extra time allows us to:
- Study your trajectory accurately;
- Develop strategies if an impact is confirmed;
- Refine planetary defense techniques.
The next few years will be crucial in understanding whether 2024YR4 will be just another visitor from space or a real problem.
Do you think we should be worried or trust science to protect us?
