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According to Seu Dinheiro, the price of the commodity fell five times in the last six economic recessions. Despite the tendency of the barrel to show negative variations, expectations for the coming weeks are that prices will remain high due to the high inflation that, only in Brazil, is above double digits in the last 12 months. The fall will happen later with economic recovery, but before that the shares of companies in the sector will suffer from instability.
O month of July has been marked by global fears of recession, especially after the cities of China responsible for more than 20% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the country announced that they would be returning to social isolation after new cases of the virus (source: Petrosolgas). O Brent oil price it has been unstable ever since. The drop in the price of a barrel was 5% in just one month, below estimates by economists.
The destruction of demands coming from major world powers will cause developing countries to slow down and enter an economic crisis. The lack of jobs that plagues more than 11 million unemployed in Brazil alone, according to IBGE, it is a clear example of this.
The interest rate hike it also leads to a loss of demand. However, it is being the only way to control the inflation variation by encouraging citizens to invest and “save” rather than “circulate money”. At the Brazil, the Selic is at 13,25% and the estimate is that it will be raised to 3,75% in the first week of August with the new Copom meeting.
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In the last 30 days, Brent crude fell 5%, lower than expected
The oil variation process has been proving to be unstable after the war between Ukraine and Russia at the end of February, in which the President of the United States, Joe Biden, had been warning of suspicious Russian movements at the borders since the beginning of January. There was a surge in commodities with a risk of shortages for the purposes of partnerships with the Russians, one of the largest exporters in the world.
According to experts, the biggest drop will happen, initially, in the long term in companies that work with primary oil products, such as Petrobras, and not directly in commodities. Last Tuesday, July 19, Petrobras shares ended up 2%, with the accumulated appreciation for the month of 4%, below the previous months.
| Min — Max (Day) | 28,40 – 29,24 |
| Variation (Day) | + 2.02 % |
| Variation (Month) | + 4.47 % |
| Variation (2022) | + 24.64 % |
| Variation (52 weeks) | + 60.43 % |
The accumulated valuation of Petrobras shares reaches 60% in the last 52 weeks, while in the year 2022 the variation of the state-owned company reached 24%, dthese data that can mean slowdown. Instabilities in stock prices occur, most of the time, after attempts by the federal government to intervene in fuel prices. Bolsonaro, President of the Republic, already demonstrated against the pricing policy. And this Tuesday, the 19th, the company announced a new reduction on the amount charged per liter of fuel, which reached 5%.
Joe Biden creates partnership with Saudi heir and can control international prices and pressure on the barrel of Brent
Last week, Joe Biden, President of the United States, met with Saudi heir Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the possibility of the country supplying oil to the United States. The expectation is that the partnership tends to reduce the pressures on the value of the barrel and the fear of "supply", Petrobras' argument to increase its prices.
In summary, the oil value tends to fall in the coming months, but before commodities the shares of companies in the sector will have negative variations.
