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BRICS has expanded its power and is threatening US hegemony. Trump wants to retaliate with aggressive tariffs, but could end up strengthening the bloc even further.
The expansion of BRICS in January 2024 represented one of the most significant moments in recent geopolitics.
The accession of six new members — Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran — increased the bloc's economic and strategic weight, making it an even more relevant force on the global stage.
Brazil, under the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, plays a fundamental role in this new phase of the group, strengthening commercial ties and defending a multipolar financial system, less dependent on the dollar.
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In contrast, the United States, led by Donald Trump, has adopted an aggressive and protectionist stance in the face of the growth of BRICS.
Trump recently threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries in the bloc if they move forward with plans to replace the dollar in international transactions.
According to him, the US will not stand idly by in the face of this “threat” to the dollar’s hegemony.
However, reality may be far more complex and challenging than Trump imagines.
The new BRICS and its growing economic power
With the entry of new members, BRICS now represents more than 45% of the world's population and a combined GDP of over 30 trillion dollars.
Furthermore, with the accession of major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, the bloc is strengthening its position in the energy market, traditionally dominated by transactions made in dollars.
This dynamic directly challenges the monopoly of the American currency and reinforces the possibility of adopting local currencies for international trade.
China and Russia, influential members of BRICS, are already moving forward with bilateral agreements to trade in yuan and rubles, reducing dependence on the Western financial system.
Brazil, under Lula's leadership, also advocates the creation of mechanisms that allow transactions without dollar intermediation, which could significantly impact the global economy.
Trump's threat and its possible effects
Trump's strategy of imposing exorbitant tariffs on BRICS could have unintended consequences for the United States itself.
First, a large-scale trade war could harm American industrial sectors that depend on inputs and raw materials from these countries.
Furthermore, many historic US allies, such as the European Union, are already showing interest in diversifying their trade relationships to reduce their exposure to Washington's unpredictable foreign policy.
Furthermore, if Trump does indeed implement massive tariffs, it could further boost BRICS efforts to strengthen their internal ties and accelerate the transition to a financial system less dependent on the US.
Such action could lead affected countries to seek alliances with other nations and further foster economic multipolarism.
The role of Brazil and Lula in the new global order
Since resuming the presidency, Lula has adopted an active stance in global diplomacy, strengthening Brazil's relations within BRICS and expanding strategic partnerships with different regions of the world.
Brazil plays a major role in global food security, being one of the largest exporters of commodities such as soybeans, meat and iron ore.
This position places the country as a relevant actor in any global trade conflict.
Furthermore, Lula has openly advocated greater cooperation between developing countries, promoting investments in infrastructure, technology and clean energy within BRICS.
He also emphasizes the need to reform international organizations, such as the IMF and the World Bank, which currently favor developed economies to the detriment of emerging nations.
The future of the dispute between BRICS and the United States
Given this scenario, Trump's attempt to weaken BRICS may prove ineffective and counterproductive.
O block growth It is not just a political issue, but also a reflection of structural changes in the world economy.
Emerging nations are seeking viable alternatives to ensure greater economic autonomy, and punitive measures by the US can only accelerate this process.
The success of BRICS will depend on its ability to maintain cohesion among its members and overcome internal challenges, such as political differences and divergent interests.
However, if it can solidify its influence and establish new, effective financial mechanisms, the bloc could become a key pillar of the new global order, reducing the unilateral power of the United States.
According to experts, the expansion of BRICS and its growing economic integration represent a real challenge to American hegemony.
In this sense, while Trump believes that tariffs and economic threats will be enough to contain the bloc, reality indicates that defeating BRICS will be much more difficult than he imagines.
The world is moving towards economic multipolarity, and countries such as Brazil, China and Russia have shown themselves to be increasingly prepared to deal with external pressures and build a new global dynamic.
Brazil, under Lula's leadership, occupies a central position in this new scenario, consolidating ties within BRICS and promoting alternatives to the Western-dominated financial system.
In any case, analysts point out that, in an increasingly interconnected world, Trump may discover that threats are not enough to stop a change that is already underway.
