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The return of Donald Trump and his promises of more oil shake up the global climate agenda and could have a direct impact on Brazil.
As the world tries to advance in the use of renewable energy, Donald Trump, former US president and current candidate, makes a controversial and, for many, dangerous promise: to drastically increase oil production to reduce energy costs in the United States.
This possible increase in oil exploration not only rekindles environmental concerns, but also has direct impacts on the global energy strategy — with a focus on Brazil.
This promise could transform the country's energy transition scenario and require strategic decisions that affect the economy and the environment. But to what extent could this new positioning by Trump affect Brazil?
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Trump's plan: prioritize fossil fuels
Donald Trump wants to put the US back in the world leadership of cheap energy.
He has promised to reduce energy costs at any cost, ignoring carbon emissions and taking an openly pro-oil stance.
During his campaign, Trump made no promises: he declared that he would set a national goal to ensure that the US had the lowest energy costs among industrialized countries.
His phrase “drill, baby, drill” sums up his policy of encouraging drilling well.
According to the newspaper The Globe, the United States ranks first in world oil production with around 12,9 million barrels per day, followed by Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Over the past fifteen years, fracking — a technique that uses water and chemicals to extract oil and gas from underground rocks — has become popular in the United States, although it faces strong opposition from environmentalists who denounce the risks of soil and water contamination.
Consequences for the global market and impact on Brazil
Trump's promise to expand oil production directly impacts international prices.
If the US significantly increases its oil supply, the price per barrel tends to fall.
This not only affects the sector in the US, but also has repercussions for producing countries such as Brazil, which ranks eighth in the world in production, with 3,4 million barrels per day, according to the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP).
For Brazil, the issue is critical. The Lula government has been focusing on the energy transition, planning to host COP30 in 2025, in addition to studying exploration projects in the Equatorial Margin, a sensitive area on the northern coast.
This new approach by Trump, with incentives for the use of fossil fuels, could force Brazil to reevaluate its strategy and even postpone investments in renewable energy.
Oil stimulus and the threat to renewable sources
Trump's stance worries not only environmentalists, but also the renewable energy sector. Experts warn that the new government could reduce incentives for clean energy, such as solar and wind, which will make it difficult to develop these technologies in Brazil and other countries. According to consultant Simon Flowers, from Wood Mackenzie, “Short-term growth expectations for wind, solar and electric vehicles depend on incentives, which will likely be removed or modified”. He believes that the scenario for these sectors will become more complicated with a possible new Trump administration.
In the midst of this perspective, Brazil has the advantage of having one of the cleanest energy matrices in the world, but this does not guarantee that the country is immune to the effects of this policy.
According to newspaper The Globe, Brazil will need to find ways to finance its energy transition, avoiding depending on decisions made by foreign governments.
Furthermore, a global reduction in incentives could make renewable projects less attractive to investors, which poses a risk to the country.
Electricity versus fossil fuels: the impact on the automotive sector
A possible new Trump administration could also change vehicle emission standards, affecting the global auto industry.
Edmar Almeida, professor at the Energy Institute of PUC-RJ, believes that the pressure to adopt electric vehicles may decrease.
For him, the scenario for electric cars will be more challenging if Trump relaxes emissions targets, scheduled for 2027.
The strategy could encourage the consumption of petroleum derivatives in the US and, consequently, hinder the expansion of electric models in emerging markets such as Brazil.
For Brazil, this American stance implies additional challenges. The reduction of subsidies for electrification could affect the prices of electric cars and, therefore, inhibit the transition to a cleaner fleet in the country.
Dependence on fossil fuels, in this scenario, may increase, making it difficult to meet carbon emissions reduction targets.
The Brazilian dilemma: expand oil or invest in renewables?
Brazil faces a complex dilemma: expand the oil and gas exploration or strengthen its renewable energy policy.
Roberto Ardenghy, president of the Brazilian Oil and Gas Institute (IBP), points out that Brazil still imports a significant portion of energy, just like the US.
In an interview with The Globe, Ardenghy points out that increased oil production in the US could represent an opportunity for Brazil to improve its energy security, but also pressure to reduce the costs of its own operations.
Marcus D'Elia, from Leggio Consultoria, adds that despite global efforts to reduce emissions, demand for oil is expected to remain high.
He advocates that Brazil use its reserves responsibly., ensuring that production is sustainable and brings benefits to the country.
The future of clean energy and Brazil’s role
In the current scenario, experts agree that if Trump wins the elections, global climate policy will face new obstacles.
The incentive to oil production in the US could hinder the advancement of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, especially in countries that depend on international partnerships and subsidies.
Brazil, on the other hand, needs to decide its role in this context. The Equatorial Margin represents a possibility for expanding oil production, but the decision to explore it requires a public debate on the environmental risks and the country's energy needs.
How can oil production be reconciled with the transition to cleaner sources? For Marcus D'Elia, careful planning of Brazil's reserves can help the country balance energy security and environmental commitment.
And what do you think? Should Brazil invest more in oil or intensify the transition to clean energy?
