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GDP is expected to decline between -0,2% and -0,5% in the quarter, due to seasonal adjustment and loss of dynamism. Economists calibrate projections.
This Tuesday (5), IBGE will release National Accounts data, which should confirm the stagnation of economic activity in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter. The expectation of economists and the analysis departments of large banks is a retraction of between -0,2% and -0,5 for **GDP** in the 3rd quarter, at the margin. The weakening of agricultural activity and staggering services in the period are responsible for the behavior.
Despite this, projections indicate that the **economy** should still grow between 1,7% and 1,9% compared to the same period in 2022. National Accounts numbers are fundamental to understanding the performance of **Domestic Product Gross** and its contribution to the country’s economic growth.
GDP forecasts for the 3rd quarter
The forecast of Andrea Damico, chief economist at Armor Capital, is similar. She has an expectation of -0,3% quarter-on-quarter, but an increase of 1,7 year-on-year. She remembers that this estimate got worse as the months went by, since Armor was working with a quarterly drop of -0,1%, but data on retail, services and industrial activity surprised mostly downwards in the period.
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The economist projects that a slowdown in services should show stability, while industry will have a
respite
, growing 0,5%.
What will contribute most to the fall (in GDP) is exactly agriculture, which should return part of the increase in the first quarter
, said.
New projections for GDP
Andrea also projects that investments should be practically stable and that government consumption should have accelerated in the quarter, in addition to a positive contribution from the external sector.
Armor Capital is also hoping that the review of previous GDP data, which will also be released this Tuesday, should lead to some sort of projection calibration for the year, for now maintained at 3,1% in 2023 and 1,9 in 2024
For XP, the estimate is a 0,2% drop in GDP in the 3rd quarter,
mainly reflecting the dissipation of the positive shock in agriculture and the slowdown in domestic demand in the period
. In comparison with the 3rd quarter of last year, the estimate is a growth of 1,8%.
Impacts of the economy in the last quarter
In a report, it was commented that, after strong expansion in the first half of the year, GDP seems to have lost steam in recent months.
We forecast growth of 2,8% in 2023 and 1,5% in 2024.
For Genial Investimentos, the scenario is one of loss of dynamism in the Brazilian economy from the second half of the year onwards, due to the still restrictive monetary policy and the scenario of high uncertainty surrounding the performance of the economy in the coming months, especially due to the tax risk
Projections for the industry and services sector
Itaú BBA's projection is that GDP in the 3rd quarter will have decreased by 0,2% at the margin, with seasonal adjustment. In the annual comparison, the expectation is for an increase of 1,9%. The bank says that one of the highlights will be the confirmation of the slowdown in the services sector, which was expected to show an annual increase of 1,3%, well below the 2,3% reported in the 2nd quarter.
Agricultural GDP is also expected to slow down, reaching annual growth of 9,4%, compared to an increase of 17,0% in the previous quarter.
Finally, we expect an annual increase of 1,8% in the industry, compared to 1,5% between the months of April and June
, according to the bank's analysis.
Various aspects of the economy and GDP
Second in the services sector, the category of
other services
, which includes services provided to families, should show an increase of 1,5% in the annualized comparison, compared to an increase of 2,4% in the 2nd quarter,
still showing some resilience, given the job market that continued to heat up
.
As for commerce, the projection is almost stability (-0,1% in the annual metric), a result very similar to that seen in the months of April to June.
It is worth highlighting the 'transport services' component, which registered a strong increase in the first quarter, benefiting from the strong performance of agribusiness, but which is expected to lose strength over the last months of the year
, says the Itaú report.
The loss of strength in agricultural GDP will be mainly the result of the lesser importance of the soybean harvest in accounting for the sector's results in the second half of the year.
Projections for industry and aggregate demand
For industrial GDP, the estimate is an increase of 1,8% in the annual comparison, compared to a growth of 1,5% in the second quarter, driven by the extractive sector, which is projected to increase by 7,8%.
The negative highlight will be the transformation industry,
which should fall by 0,7%, given weak demand and high levels of stocks, and for construction, amid the drop in production of typical inputs and the slowdown in the wage bill in the sector
.
On the aggregate demand side, Itaú still sees strong data on household consumption and exports.
As for the first, we estimate an increase of 2,6% compared to the same period last year. The resilience of the labor market has mainly supported household spending on services
, explained the bank.
GDP forecasts and market analysis
For exports, the 10% annual growth estimate made by Itaú was influenced by the harvests of the period, as well as the strong performance of the oil extraction industry. Gross fixed capital formation, on the other hand, is expected to continue recording an annual decline, given the decline in both domestic production of capital goods and imports.
For Santander Brasil, the expected contraction is 0,4% in GDP for the third quarter, a downward revision of the 0,3% drop previously predicted.
If our projection is correct, this would imply the first negative result in quarterly variations since the 2nd quarter of 2021
.
Recently, FGV/Ibre anticipated in its GDP Monitor that household consumption should present its ninth consecutive positive variation in the third quarter (the projection is 2,5%, although at a slower pace compared to previous quarters. The report says that This demonstrates the great resilience of this component, despite the high interest rate environment and the high level of household debt.
For André Nunes de Nunes, chief economist at Sicredi, a slight decline in GDP for the quarter is expected, of -0,1%.
On the supply side, there will be a retraction in Agriculture (-1,7%) after a very strong first half of the year. On the demand side, we expect a drop in investments of (-2,0%), largely due to the effects of the restrictive interest rate cycle.
Source: InfoMoney
