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Light should rise, on average, 19% next year. Most of the increase is due to drought, which has increased costs for power generation.
In 2021, the light bill became one of the biggest villains for Brazilians' finances. However, according to calculations by TR Soluções, a technology company specializing in energy tariffs, the expectation is that there will be a new increase for 2022.
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The dry season has increased costs for power generation in Brazil. With that, 12% increase, of the 19% that are predicted, will be due to the lack of rain. The country is experiencing the worst drought in the last 90 years.
As it was necessary to activate the thermal plants to supply the population's demand for electricity, and the operation of these plants is more expensive, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) determined the charging of an extra tariff on the electricity bills, the so-called flag tariff.
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Account deficit forecast
According to Aneel, the amount collected with tariff flags is not being enough to cover expenses – in September, the deficit was already R$9,87 billion. TR Soluções estimates that this deficit will increase to R$17,8 billion by 2022.
The survey by the technology company also pointed out that the increase in the electricity bill may exceed 30% in some regions of Brazil. However, TR Soluções did not detail what these locations would be.
In addition, the company's average increase forecast may still be below reality. The newspaper “O Estado de S.Paulo” obtained access to internal Aneel documents that forecast an average increase of 21,04% in energy bills in 2022.
This year, the accumulated readjustment for residential electricity bills reached 7%.
Why raises are still not enough
The damage to the flags account began in 2021. With the pandemic, Aneel suspended charging extra fees as an emergency way to reduce consumer spending. Thus, at the beginning of the year, the deficit was already R$ 3,1 billion.
During that year, Aneel adjusted the value of the yellow, red, level 1 and red flags, level 2, making them higher.
The threshold 2 red flag, which was in effect, increased by 52%. However, at that moment, Aneel's technical area informed that the readjustment was not enough. That is, even readjusted, the rate could not cover the extra costs of energy generation.
In August, the National Agency created a new flag, called water scarcity. The fee charged is even more expensive, at BRL 14,20 per 100 kWh consumed. Currently, this is the value in force, representing an increase of 49,6% in relation to the previous one, of R$ 9,49 per 100 kWh.
The director of regulation at TR Soluções, Helder Souza, stated that the readjustment helped to recover the accounts, but that it is still not enough.
“The deficit started back there [in 2020], because the flag was not applied. Afterwards, the values should have undergone a greater readjustment. From the beginning, Aneel's technical area said that the value needed to be R$ 15 per 100 kWh to pay the costs, but the board decided to approve a lower value”, said Helder.
Costs that were not covered are absorbed by distributors, but will reach consumers at some point.
How is the readjustment applied to electricity bills
Aneel annually reviews the electricity tariffs for each concessionaire. To calculate this, the company takes into account the operating costs and investments required to operate the service.
Each concession agreement has a predetermined date for the readjustments to occur. Therefore, it does not happen in a single and simultaneous way throughout the country. In Rio de Janeiro, for example, in 2021 the increase occurred in March. In São Paulo, the readjustment was set for June.
