The green symbol on the energy bill, meaning exemption from additional charges, can persist until 2024, according to Aneel.
Hélvio Guerra, head of the regulatory agency, revealed that the heavy rains, which significantly increased the level of hydroelectric reservoirs, the country's main source of energy, make this possible.
the maintenance of green flag was attributed to the growth in energy supply in the year, with emphasis on renewable sources, as he says. He also predicted that this trend would continue unbroken until 2023.
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According to Luiz Carlos Ciocchi, general director of the National Electrical System Operator (ONS), in a recent interview with Reuters, there is no indication of additional costs on Brazilians' energy bills this year. "The ONS is very attentive to the environment and is comfortable in 2023 and 2024. All our reservoirs are full and it continues to rain, which gives us that comfort," Guerra told Reuters. More than 60 percent of electricity from Brazil comes from hydroelectric power plants.
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“If all goes well, we will have the green flag by the end of this year and possibly in 2024”, added the mayor. The hydroelectric reservoirs are expected to end their wet season in April, reaching their best storage levels since 2007.
In the Southeast and Midwest regions, where the hydroelectric plants with the largest lakes are located, the reservoirs will be at 85% capacity by the end of March, according to the ONS. Estimates for a dry period starting in April are also positive, with dams likely reaching their best levels in 16 years in August, according to the ONS.
The arrival of the new rainy season in November of this year will help smooth the transition from 2023 to 2024. During the 2021 water crisis, red flags were triggered several times, and the amount of additional charges in the electricity spreadsheet was also adjusted. The government also created a special token, then known as a water scarcity token, to cover the extra costs of securing energy supplies when starting more expensive thermal plants.
When the red or yellow flags are applied, the bill increases from BRL 2.989 to BRL 9.795 for every 100 kilowatt hours (kWh) consumed. When the water scarcity signal is in effect, from September 2021 to April 15, 2022, the consumer will pay an additional BRL 14,20 per 100 kWh. The head of Aneel said that the view now is that these more expensive cogeneration plants will not be dispatched, only those considered inflexible will be triggered.
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In addition to the favorable hydrological conditions, the director of Aneel emphasized that the supply of renewable energy generation will increase this year.
Wind already has around 25,6 GW of installed capacity in the country, while solar has 27 GW of parks (plus own and distributed generation). According to the Absolar Association, the country should add 10,1 GW of solar generation in 2023 alone, of which 5,5 GW are distributed generation (roofs and small lots).