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The arrival of electric cars in Brazil could threaten the fuel market, but ethanol's days are numbered, quite the contrary!
Gasoline, diesel, ethanol and biodiesel have been put against the wall as electric cars hit the Brazilian market. Despite pressure, in the assessment of Santander Brasil, ethanol does not have its days numbered, quite the contrary. But why?
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According to a report obtained by the Money Times, the consumption of biofuels should remain solid, even with the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the country.
Time explains a good part of the analysis prepared by Santander, after talking to Bain & Company's Energia team about the prospects for ethanol and the potential impact of electric vehicles entering the Brazilian market.
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“The number of electric cars should only start to grow more significantly from 2030 onwards, due to the high penetration of ethanol and the potential limitation of Brazilian government subsidies for electric vehicles”, is the first reason identified by sector analysts Christian Audi and Rodrigo Almeida, who signed the report.
RenovaBio should continue encouraging the production of biofuels
In addition, Santander explains that RenovaBio should continue encouraging the production of biofuels — mainly through economic incentives for producers —, keeping ethanol alive and competitive in the game.
Another no less important factor is that demand for biofuels is also expected to continue to rise globally due to aggressive blending targets, analysts cite, for example, India's recent move to launch E20 by 2023.
According to a study led by an influential executive in the sugar & ethanol sector, Brazil is poised to flood the world's sugar market as the country's transition to electric vehicles will reduce demand for agricultural-based biofuels.
The demand for ethanol, which in some years corresponds to more than 50% of all sugarcane crushed in Brazil, may start to decline from 2025 onwards and retreat by around 40% by 2035, according to the most pessimistic scenario outlined by the study.
Gasoline prices soar again, ethanol confirms a significant increase at the plant, CNG breaks a record of R$ 5 at gas stations and consumers have nowhere else to run
Research carried out between May 30th and June 5th, by the National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANP), shows that the price of fuels has risen again in Brazil and the consumer has nowhere to run. The price of common gasoline hit R$5,89 and the added one reached R$6,29. The price of ethanol has already increased significantly at the plant and parity with gasoline has gone over 70%, not counting CNG, the fuel widely used by app and taxi drivers has surpassed the mark of R$ 5,00 per cubic meter, a record!
To give you an idea, without freight, without ICMS and without PIS/Cofins, the liter price of hydrous ethanol ended the week at R$ 2,9983 in plants and distilleries in São Paulo, an expressive nonsense of 4,17%.
The best-selling biofuel in Brazil has lost competitiveness, under parity with the price of gasoline, rising from 70%, depending on the pace of transfer from distributors to gas stations, in addition to the 2,14% that varied the increase in Paulínia bases also this week.
In the data collected by Cepea, in the five working days immediately preceding (24 to 28), the value of ethanol reached R$ 2,8783 in the plants.
The harvest with slower ethanol production, with a drop in sugarcane availability, and slightly more sugar production in view of more favorable international prices, determine the law of supply in face of firmer demand.
In addition, the price of oil also influenced the rise in the price of ethanol. On June 04, the barrel in London closed above US$ 71,60, but the dollar in a sequence of retreat (R$ 5,04, minus 0,95%, also on Friday) is giving Petrobras breath in the increase of gasoline, increasing the parity between fuels.
Prices of gasoline, ethanol, diesel and CNG keep rising and the newest biogas fuel came to 'save' application drivers, taxi drivers and workers
With each passing day, the price of gasoline, ethanol and diesel increases, and, with that, Brazilians who work with passenger transport, such as taxi drivers and app drivers, who resorted to Vehicular Natural Gas (CNG), are migrating to biogas fuel, since CNG is also starting to weigh on their pockets. Biogas can be used without problems in vehicles that have a gas kit.
Petrobras made a new readjustment in the price of CNG, increasing 39% for distributors. According to the survey carried out by the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), in the last week of May, the price of vehicle gas to the final consumer already reached R$ 5,00 in some parts of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Therefore, despite not being a new solution, biogas has become popular because it yields more and is cheaper.
