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Fuels – Dollar appreciation has greater influence on prices than the value of oil

Written by Roberta Souza
Published 23/02/2021 às 18:18
Fuels, dollar, oil
Fuel

Fuel prices vary according to the price of a barrel of oil and the value of the dollar

Fuel prices mainly differ based on two main variables: the price of a barrel of oil and the dollar price. The price of Brent oil, which Petrobras uses as a benchmark, rose nearly 15%. However, if we look at a longer period of time, the main villain behind the increase in gasoline and diesel prices is the American currency, which is currently at 5,44 reais.

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Impact with the pandemic:

The oil sector had a big impact with covid-19, but with the restoration of the economy, prices returned to their original positions. In the trading session on Friday (19), the price of Brent oil reached US$ 64,44 a barrel. Despite a significant increase from the worst moment, the price of a barrel of oil still fell 6,9% compared to last January.

However, fuel prices in Brazil did not follow this drop. According to ANP, in January 2020, the Brazilian paid an average of 4,58 reais per liter of gasoline. Now he has to pay an average of 4,83 reais – but, in some states, he has already paid more than 5 reais per liter.

The influence of the American currency:

From January 2020 to today, the US dollar has risen 34% against the real. On Monday (22), the situation was still complicated and the dollar exchange rate exceeded 5,50 reais. This led the Central Bank (BC) to hold a US$ 1 billion auction to mitigate losses.

Alessandra Ribeiro, economist and partner at Tendências Consultoria, says that “When we look at the broader horizon, the exchange rate was much more important for the increase in fuel prices than oil”.

Roberta Souza

Petroleum Engineer, postgraduate in Commissioning of Industrial Units, specialist in Industrial Corrosion. Get in touch to suggest an agenda, advertise job vacancies or advertise on our portal. We do not receive resumes

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