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Workers are in despair over the new unemployment insurance law under discussion: to reduce spending, the government is tightening rules, reducing benefits and limiting benefits by salary range.
The government is about to implement a new law that can transform the rules of unemployment insurance, directly affecting the salary and rights of the Brazilian worker. In an attempt to contain spending and balance public accounts, the changes studied promise to have a profound impact on access to the benefit, raising questions about how the new legislation could affect millions of families.
Do these changes represent progress or a challenge for workers?
Government analyzes changes to unemployment insurance to contain public spending
In order to balance the public Accounts, the federal government is evaluating important adjustments to the unemployment insurance rules. The proposals under analysis include changes to the way the benefit is financed and the decoupling of the value from the minimum wage, in addition to other measures that aim to contain the growing costs of this aid intended for workers.
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The Workers' Support Fund (FAT), which currently supports the benefit, has faced increasing pressure due to increased spending, which has led the economic team to seek solutions that ensure greater fiscal sustainability. Despite recognizing the social impact of unemployment insurance, experts argue that changes are inevitable to mitigate the federal deficit in the medium and long term.
Lawyer Márcia Cleide Ribeiro, a specialist in labor law, emphasizes that reviewing the benefit is a necessary step: “At a time of fiscal adjustments, a careful approach to unemployment insurance is essential, balancing the needs of workers with the government’s urgency to contain public spending.” The analysis reflects a point of consensus among economists and political analysts.
Proposals under study for unemployment insurance: Government tightens rules, reduces benefits and limits by salary range.
Among the ideas discussed by the government is to conduct a more detailed audit of beneficiary records. The goal is to combat fraud, such as granting installments beyond what is permitted or the repeated use of the benefit by workers from certain companies. This initiative could significantly reduce the costs of the program and ensure that the resources reach the truly eligible workers.
Another proposal would be to change the number of benefit installments, linking it to the amount of the 40% fine on the FGTS balance, paid to workers dismissed without just cause. In this way, the rules would be adjusted to better reflect the conditions for termination of employment.
In addition, the government is considering raising the PIS/Cofins tax rate for sectors with high labor turnover, which are considered to be major demanders of unemployment insurance. Part of the funds raised from these taxes are earmarked for the FAT, which would make the financing model more proportionate to the demands generated.
Impact of minimum wage and fiscal tensions
The relationship between unemployment insurance and the minimum wage is also a sensitive issue. The policy of increasing the minimum wage in real terms, which was resumed by President Lula in 2023, has a direct impact on the cost of the benefit. For each real increase in the minimum wage, the government spends approximately R$12,4 million more on unemployment insurance. Therefore, one of the proposals would be to decouple the benefit from the minimum wage, maintaining only the adjustment for inflation.
This idea, however, is controversial, as it clashes with the social discourse that is the basis of the government. According to the director of the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), Vilma Pinto, increasing the minimum wage directly impacts public spending, but decoupling unemployment insurance from the minimum wage could generate fiscal relief without compromising workers' purchasing power.
The 2024 budget already provides R$50,5 billion for the benefit, and the expectation is that the amount will reach R$56,8 billion in 2025, an increase of 12,5% in two years.
The growth in unemployment insurance spending over the years highlights the need for adjustments. In 2023, the benefit cost the public coffers R$47,8 billion, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year. Since 2009, when spending was R$19,6 billion, there has been a growth of 144%. Although the amount currently represents 0,4% of GDP – lower than the 0,6% recorded at the beginning of the historical series –, the increase predicted for 2024 and 2025 is worrying.
The 2024 budget already provides R$50,5 billion for the benefit, and the amount is expected to reach R$56,8 billion in 2025, an increase of 12,5% in two years. These figures reflect the combined impact of the increase in the minimum wage and the annual adjustment by the INPC.
Vilma Pinto points out that a reduction in the unemployment rate does not always result in lower spending on unemployment insurance. Even with a buoyant job market, the volume of layoffs and hirings can increase the number of requests for the benefit, keeping costs high for the government.
New unemployment insurance law comes amid internal government dispute over economic policy
The analysis of unemployment insurance comes amid an internal dispute within the government over the conduct of economic policy. On the one hand, ministers Fernando Haddad (Finance) and Simone Tebet (Planning) advocate structural adjustments to contain the fiscal deficit. On the other, the more heterodox wing of the PT government continues to advocate increased spending as a tool to stimulate economic development.
Professor Paulo Kramer of the University of Brasília describes this approach as a “heterodox mess” that includes government intervention and increased public spending. He says that although Haddad and Tebet’s proposals are coherent, they face strong political resistance within the government itself.
According to Kramer, current economic policies are reminiscent of the times of Dilma Rousseff's administration, marked by controversial fiscal interventions that culminated in her departure from the Presidency. “Public debt is rapidly approaching dangerous levels, and the financial market has lost confidence in the government's fiscal framework,” warns the political scientist.
In addition to unemployment insurance, the government is evaluating changes to other social and tax benefits
In addition to unemployment insurance, the government is considering changes to other social and tax benefits. One of the proposals involves reducing the ceiling for Simples Nacional, a program that makes taxation easier for small businesses. Another idea would be to restrict the payment of the salary bonus to workers who earn a minimum wage, generating savings of up to R$256 billion over a decade.
There are also discussions about the use of extraordinary revenues to alleviate the fiscal deficit. Among them are the incorporation of forgotten amounts in bank accounts and the recovery of unpaid court orders.
Despite the initiatives under consideration, the government has avoided taking an official position on possible changes to unemployment insurance. When asked, the Ministries of Finance and Labor refused to comment on the matter. The Ministry of Planning stated that discussions are in the preliminary phase and focus on reducing inefficiencies and inequalities.
Impact on workers and the political scenario
Possible changes to unemployment insurance are divisive. On the one hand, economists warn of the urgency of adapting the benefit to the country's fiscal reality. On the other, unions and workers' representatives fear that the reforms will harm the most vulnerable.
While the government seeks alternatives to meet its fiscal goals, unemployment insurance remains a sensitive topic, involving not only financial issues, but also the social commitment to protect workers in times of difficulty.
With the projected spending for the coming years, it is clear that adjustments are inevitable. It remains to be seen whether the measures will be able to balance the impact on the public budget without compromising the rights and dignity of Brazilian workers.
