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Fuel prices in Brazil under control despite fluctuating oil prices
amidst the instability of the international oil market, fuel prices at Brazilian gas stations remained practically stable last week. a slight increase of 0,3% was recorded in the price of gasoline, while diesel remained unchanged, according to data from National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). the pricing policy practiced by Petrobras contributed to this stability, preventing external volatility from directly impacting consumers in the country.
Gasoline and diesel prices remain stable: effect of Petrobras' pricing policy
Petrobras, responsible for 80% of oil refining in Brazil, has kept gasoline prices unchanged for 113 days and diesel prices unchanged for an impressive 308 days. Since May of last year, the company has adopted a new pricing strategy, abandoning the International Price Parity (PPI) and implementing an approach that allows for greater flexibility in adjustments. This decision aims to protect the domestic market from immediate fluctuations in oil prices on the international scene.
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- stability of domestic prices: Petrobras has adopted a policy that mitigates the volatility of oil prices, bringing greater predictability to the domestic market.
- abandonment of International Price Parity (IPP): the PPI was replaced by a model that allows greater dialogue with the domestic market, prioritizing the impact on the Brazilian consumer.
- extensive adjustment intervals: With the new policy, the company can maintain longer adjustment intervals, avoiding sudden changes for the end consumer.
International market: fluctuation in Brent oil and impact on refineries
In the international market, Brent crude oil, which serves as a benchmark for global prices, had a volatile week. After a significant rise on Friday (25), the price of Brent fell on Monday, reaching the range of US$ 71 per barrel again, after having reached US$ 76. This movement reflects geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of global supply and demand. However, Petrobras has managed to keep prices stable in Brazil, preventing this volatility from being passed on directly to the consumer.
Reasons for Brent price instability:
- geopolitical conflicts: tensions in the Middle East directly impact the supply of oil, influencing international prices.
- global economic uncertainties: Demand expectations regarding global economic growth also affect prices.
- supply and demand fluctuations: With unexpected events in the oil sector, such as production drops, the price tends to fluctuate, increasing the risk for importing countries.
Average price of gasoline, diesel and LPG in the week
According to the ANP, the average price of gasoline closed at R$6,11 per liter, while diesel was sold at R$6,02. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), used mainly in cylinders, showed a slight drop of 0,2% last week, closing the period at R$106,38 per 13-kilo cylinder.
comparison of average prices for the week:
- Gasoline: R$ 6,11 per liter (+0,3% compared to the previous week)
- diesel: R$ 6,02 per liter (stable)
- LPG: R$ 106,38 per 13 kg cylinder (-0,2%)
Brazilian price gap in relation to the international market
Despite the stability policy, the difference between Brazilian and international prices has increased. According to the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), the price of gasoline in Brazil has an average lag of 8% compared to the foreign market, suggesting that Petrobras would have room to adjust the price at refineries by up to R$0,23 per liter. For diesel, the current lag is 3%, allowing a potential increase of R$0,12 per liter.
This gap is due to the lack of adjustments since the last semester, combined with the recent drop in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and economic fluctuations.
lags and possible price adjustments:
- Gasoline: 8% gap (possible increase of R$ 0,23 per liter)
- diesel: 3% lag (increase margin of R$ 0,12 per liter)
Impacts of pricing policy on the Brazilian economy
Petrobras' decision to keep prices stable is seen as a measure that reduces inflationary pressure in Brazil, protecting consumers from the sudden variations that affect the international market. With fuel inflation under control, the country is able to maintain relative economic stability, which is positive for sectors directly dependent on transportation, such as logistics, agriculture and industry.
However, the increase in the gap may lead to pressure for prices to be adjusted, especially if oil prices remain high on the international market. In the event of adjustments, consumers are likely to feel the impact on fuel prices, which could have negative repercussions on other economic sectors.
What to expect from fuel prices in the coming weeks?
Given the current scenario, experts indicate that Petrobras should evaluate the evolution of the international market before making any adjustments. The company has maintained a policy of dialogue with the market and authorities, seeking to balance the interests of consumers and shareholders. If Brent's volatility continues, Petrobras may adjust prices to reduce the gap, but remain cautious to minimize the impact on the domestic market.
possible future scenarios:
- maintaining stable prices: If Brent stabilizes or falls, prices in Brazil are likely to remain unchanged.
- moderate adjustments: With a prolonged rise in Brent, Petrobras may adopt small adjustments to reduce the gap and balance the relationship with the external market.
- inflationary pressure: Depending on the duration and intensity of the oil price hikes, Brazil could see moderate inflationary pressure, especially on gasoline and diesel.
Petrobras and fuel stability in Brazil
In a scenario of global uncertainty and volatility, Petrobras' pricing policy has played an important role in maintaining economic stability in Brazil. Although the price gap is increasing, the company seeks a balance that minimizes direct impacts on consumers. Future prices will depend, to a large extent, on the trajectory of the international oil market and global economic conditions, which directly influence the cost of the commodity.
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