English 
Spanish 
6 min read
0 comments
– You are about to discover everything the investor needs to know before trading this week. This content will provide valuable information for successful operations.
In the Eurozone economic bloc, the first notable data to be released will be the indicator of confidence in the economy, with information for the month of November, on Wednesday, together with the German consumer price index. The release of Germany's November unemployment rate is scheduled for Thursday, and that same day the consumer price index and the Eurozone unemployment rate will also be released.
On Friday, the S&P Global PMI index for the manufacturing industry is scheduled to be released, for the month of November, both for the Euro Zone and for the United Kingdom and Germany. This data is extremely important for understanding the current economic situation and anticipating possible future trends.
Disclosure of Economic data our United States
The following day, data will be presented personal income e personal expenses referring to the month of October, with LSEG estimating an increase of 0,2% compared to the previous month for both variables. In addition, there will be publicity PCE deflator on the same day.
- No soy or sugarcane! Brazil's largest exported product is oil, to the delight of Petrobras and other companies in the sector.
- From pre-salt to the largest gas reserve: Petrobras discovers 6 trillion cubic feet of gas in Colombia and leads global energy revolution
- The impressive numbers from the 10 oil platforms with the HIGHEST production in October: More than 2 million barrels per day in the spotlight in the pre-salt!
- Brazil to auction 78 MILLION barrels of oil! China took the majority in the last auction
On Friday, due to it being the first day of the month, the figures for Payroll, one of the most important metrics for analyzing the situation of the job market in the country.
In the North American territory, the last week was shortened, with the stock exchanges closing on Thursday (23) due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and an earlier closing at 15pm on Friday (24).
The next few days will be marked by the release of conference board with consumer confidence indices on Tuesday. The week gains strength on Wednesday, with the publication of the second analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter, with a forecast of 5,0% growth compared to the previous quarter, in addition to data on Trade balance and the Federal Reserve Beige Book.
Furthermore, the focus is also on seeking to strengthen a proposal that restricts the ability of companies to deduct state tax benefits from the base calculation for federal taxes, known as the “subsidy project”. This is one of the key elements on the Ministry of Finance's agenda and will be closely monitored by the market.
Finally, changes are taking place in some states in the Southeast and South to increase the modal rate of ICMS, with the aim of recovering state revenue in the short term and neutralizing possible losses arising from the reform of the ICMS.
Banco Itaú expects that conversations about the proposed change in the taxation of offshore funds and exclusives move forward, as well as the progress of negotiations on the sports betting bill.
“According to the projections of the economic team, these measures have the potential to generate an increase of 22 billion reais in revenue in 2024, an amount considered crucial by management to achieve the target of zero deficit in 2024. Both agendas have the possibility of move forward, with the prospect of a final vote in the plenary next week”, highlights the financial institution.
Assessment Report Primary Income and Expenses
In the political sphere, last week there was the release of the Security Assessment Report Primary Income and Expenses, which increased the primary deficit to R$177 billion.
According to Bradesco, “Our projection indicates a primary deficit slightly lower than that presented in the report. This is due to the fact that it is highly likely that some discretionary expenses will end up being postponed. With regard to mandatory expenses, our numbers are close to those indicated by the government”.
Bradesco's projection indicates a primary deficit slightly smaller than that presented in the report, based on the possibility of some discretionary expenses being postponed and numbers close to the mandatory expenses indicated by the government.
The week will end with more information from FGV, such as the economic uncertainty indicator on Thursday and the business confidence index on Friday. In addition Monthly Industrial Survey of the IBGE will be released, together with the PMI index for the manufacturing industry.
The disclosures will end with the presentation of the Trade balance from November. Itaú expects a surplus of US$9 billion, similar to October and much larger than the surplus of US$6,2 billion in November 2022. The figures for vehicle registrations by Fenabrave.
On Wednesday, Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) will release the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) and the results of services and commerce surveys for the month of November. That same day, the General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged) will display formal employment data. On Thursday, it will be our turn to discover the unemployment rate, data provided by the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD To be continued).
According to projections from Itaú bank, Caged is expected to create 125 thousand formal jobs, compared to the 211 thousand registered in September. When seasonally adjusted, Caged is expected to reach 106, compared to 115 in the previous month. About unemployment rate, it is predicted to increase to 7,8%, compared to the previous 7,7% (seasonally adjusted to 8,0%).
Additionally, on Tuesday, the industry survey numbers by FGV will be released and the primary outcome from the government, with Bradesco's expectation of R$15,8 billion.
“We anticipate a surplus of R$18,3 billion. Furthermore, tax collection data for October (previously scheduled to be released on November 20) may be published throughout the week, and we estimate a result of R$212,7 billion”, highlights Itaú's economic team. **These forecasts are important to monitor the current economic scenario**.
IPCA-15 November: Forecast of increase and impact on economic data for the last quarter of the year
The most anticipated data of the week will be announced on Tuesday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the IPCA-15 from November. Bradesco predicts an increase of 0,35% in the monthly comparison, while Itaú estimates that the increase could be 0,29%, resulting in a drop in the annual rate to 4,8% from the 5,0% observed in October.
Despite a more pressured number than that recorded in October due to food at home, the data will maintain the benign trajectory for inflation, with well-behaved cores and services. Bradesco highlights that, in relation to the activity, the industrial production for October should remain practically stable, which marks the beginning of monitoring cyclical data from the last quarter of the year. **Activity, highlighting the industrial production referring to October, which should be practically left aside, starting the cyclical data for the last quarter of the year**.
The last week was characterized by the rejection of tax relief and a less lively Black Friday, which contributed to the fall of the Ibovespa on Friday. With a more emptied agenda, next week will bring important economic indicators in Brazil, such as the IPCA-15, dice of industrial production and CAGED.
On Monday, Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) will present the INCC-M November and the Construction survey from November. Furthermore, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) will release the sectoral results for November, and the Treasury will bring the monthly report on federal public debt. The expectation is that this data will provide more insights into the country's economic scenario, impacting several sectors.
Source: InfoMoney
