In the first quarter of 2023, junior oil companies showed positive financial results, according to analyzes by banks and investment brokers.

However, a scenario of political and economic uncertainties, such as the possible return of the oil export tax and the suspension of sale of Petrobras assets, put investors on alert. In general, banks expect a quarter considered "robust", mainly for the Enauta, PRIO, 3R Petroleum and Petroreconcavo, which released solid production data.

Fall in oil prices does not compromise companies' cash generation

Highlight for PRIO, which sold all the accumulated inventory of the fourth quarter of 2022 to avoid the big discounts of the previous quarter, as reported by Genial Investimentos. Banco Itaú BBA predicts that PRIO will have a record result in the quarter, due to the sale of all oil accumulated in US Virgin Islands, after the postponement of sales in the previous quarter.

Even with the fall in oil prices, the current price level is considered healthy for companies' cash generation, according to analysts at Casa XP. Brent prices fell to US$81,20 a barrel (-8,4% in the quarter), while the exchange rate dropped slightly to R$5,26 per dollar (-1,3% quarterly).

Although the drop in oil prices may directly impact the year-on-year comparison, junior oil companies may still show reasonable results as a result of high production levels.

Issues to be discussed in teleconferences: certification of reserves, taxation of exports, Capex and Petrobras' pricing policy

The penultimate week of April was busy for junior companies, with the increase in the surprise capital of 3R Petroleum and the increase in Capex of Petroreconcavo. However, even with market variations, the financial results of junior oil companies remain positive.

However, some issues still need to be discussed in the conference calls, such as: the release of new reserve certification reports for the junior oil companies, reactions and effects of taxation of crude oil exports for PRIO, Capex increase in the new reserve report for Petroreconcavo, capital increase to 3R and discussions on Petrobras pricing policy.

Petrobras should show a drop in annual comparisons due to the drop in the price of Brent

Concerning Petrobras, Genial Investimentos assesses that the result should show a drop in annual comparisons, largely due to the fall in brent, which reached US$ 120 a barrel at the peak of prices in the first quarter of 2022, versus around US$ 80 a barrel in the first quarter of 2023.

As noted by analysts, recent months have been particularly eventful for Brazilian oil and gas companies. However, the junior oil companies manage to maintain a positive performance, with the Enauta, PRIO, 3R Petroleum and Petroreconcavo presenting solid results of production and high levels of oil and gas prices.

In general, the expectation is that junior companies can continue to grow in the oil and gas market, mainly with greater exploitation of fields already discovered. Junior oil companies are important players in the sector, contributing to market diversification and maintaining a constant growth pace in the country.