English 
Spanish 
3 min read
The projections of bp's new Energy Outlook for the use of oil in the coming decades are quite optimistic. The demand for the product in the transport sector should decrease, due to the use of new fuels in the electrification of vehicles.
Launched this Monday (30/01), bp's new Energy Outlook points to an increasingly sustainable future in the international transport sector. The study reveals projections for the coming decades and points to a gradual substitution of oil for renewable fuels, as well as the electrification of vehicles by the end of 2050. In this way, the global market will move towards low carbon footprint goals.
International transport sector will see a shift from oil to electric vehicles over the next few decades, points out bp
The projections of the multinational company bp for the future of the transport market were released with the Energy Outlook, launched earlier this week.
The role of oil should decrease in all modes of transport by 2050, a reflection of the transition to low-carbon alternatives already underway, as the study highlights.
- Volkswagen confirms employees' nightmare: THREE factories will close and mass layoffs will happen
- Assad flees Syria, leaving behind his private fleet of luxury cars, including Mercedes, Porsches, Ferraris and armored SUVs
- Mitsubishi surprises: new hybrid arrives in Brazil in 2025 with 302 hp, 86 km of electric autonomy and 27 km/l!
- Replacing an electric car's battery will be cheaper than repairing a combustion engine, study reveals
The electrification of road transport and the use of biomass-based fuels will be the main factors that will lead to a drop in the demand for oil in transport.
The document outlines three scenarios: Liquid Zero, Accelerated and New Moment. They have been updated to take into account two events that had a major impact on the energy situation in the last year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the approval of the US Inflation Reduction Act.
Thus, the impact of the electrification of the transport sector and the use of biofuels will be visible in the coming decades.
According to bp's Energy Outlook, the number of electric cars (including plug-in hybrids) and light trucks increases from around 20 million in 2021 to 2 billion (around 80%) by the end of 2050.
The electrification of road transport vehicles can already be observed in the Brazilian industrial sector on a certain scale.
The bp study points out that electric passenger vehicles represent the majority of new car sales in the mid-2030s in Accelerated and Liquid Zero.
A sudden change in the use of oil as a basis for road transport in the global scenario can then be observed.
A drop in diesel prices and an increase in biofuels will accompany the transport sector in the electrification of vehicles, highlights Energy Outlook
In addition to the electrification of road transport and the drop in the use of oil in vehicles, bp points to a decrease in the use of fossil fuels in heavy vehicles, such as trucks, for example.
From 90% share in 2021, diesel engines are expected to drop to somewhere between 70 – 75% of the global fleet by 2035 in Zero and Accelerated Liquid and 5-20% by 2050.
“The choice between electrification and hydrogen varies across different countries and regions, depending on policies that affect the relative price of electricity and low-carbon hydrogen, as well as regulatory policies and the development of charging and refueling infrastructure,” the report points out. Energy Outlook.
Biofuels will also have their highlight in the aviation transport sector in the coming years, as projected by bp.
By the end of 2050, fuels derived from hydrogen (e-SAF) are gaining market share across the global stage.
Finally, in maritime transport, fuels derived from hydrogen will be the main alternatives to oil. bp's Energy Outlook, with all the scenarios for the electrification of the transport sector and the fall in the use of oil, can be seen at any time by clicking here!
