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The bill to tax crude oil exports is making strides in the Senate. Law would help keep fuel prices stable.
The taxation of oil exports, currently being discussed in the Senate, has been identified as a solution to contain the increase in fuel prices, which has been a constant in Brazilian life since Petrobras changed its pricing policy in 2016, associating the value of Brazilian fuel per barrel of international oil. This got much worse in 2021, with the increase in the price of a barrel.
The consequences for the economy are diverse. Specialists point to this increase in fuel prices as one of the main reasons for inflation, since, as is known, the increase in fuel prices generates a cascade effect of increases in practically all the products that Brazilians need, since they are transported by freight. road.
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In this sense, the intention of this bill is to create a tax on crude oil exports and, with the resources generated by this new tax, create a fund to control fuel prices.
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In this way, defend the senators, it would be possible to create some control over the final price of fuel at the pump for Brazilians without necessarily generating any kind of change in Petrobras' sales policy.
How is the status of the crude oil export tax bill in the Senate?
Initially presented in April last year, by Senator Rogério Carvalho (PT-SE), the proposal was approved by the Economic Affairs Commission in December 2001, under the rapporteurship of Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN).
At the moment, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), has been seeking support among Senate leaders to put the new law to a vote in early February.
If the law is approved in the Senate, it will still need approval from the House and will finally be presented to the President, who can ask for changes in the text or even veto the law as a whole.
The most interesting thing about the proposal submitted to the Senate at the moment is that there is no state intervention in price policy, only the creation of mechanisms so that, in the event of an international increase, the regulatory fund is able to smooth this increase for the final consumer. With this, an attempt is made to avoid constant increases in fuel prices, such as those we had in 2021, allowing for a more efficient economic recovery
The other side of the coin: what is the market's opinion?
Despite the advance progress of the senate's proposal, there are several voices in the oil market stating since last year that this measure is not a good idea.
Many claim that this could considerably reduce the interest of international investors in Brazil.
The director of the Fuel Department of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Marisa Barros, in November last year, during Energy Talks, said the following:
"We have to analyze to what extent this will affect the companies' investments in upstream projects that have already been acquired and the next auctions".
On the same occasion, professor and researcher at FGV Energia, Fernanda Delgado, recalled that Argentina promoted a similar measure and ended up making investments in the oil and gas sector in the country unfeasible.
The concern is not without reason. Since the entry of international companies for the exploration of oil fields in Brazil was facilitated, there has been a considerable growth both in production and in the generation of jobs in the market, and also in the generation of resources for the public coffers.
An excellent example of this generation of funds was the pre-salt surplus auction held last month, which generated a balance of R$11 billion for public coffers.
Despite this, some experts claim that, without a favorable scenario for investments, the situation may change.
As he commented last month to the CNN Brazil o President of the Oil and Gas Institute, Eberaldo Almeida, stability is essential for investments to continue to be made, as all businesses in the oil and gas sector are long-term investments.
