OPEC goes back with a forecast of high world demand for oil, where the bet would be 3,1 million barrels per day

After revisions made, OPEC calculated that world demand for oil this year will reach 100 million barrels per day

A OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) went back on its forecast of increase in global oil demand in 2022, where the organization predicted an increase of about 300 thousand barrels of oil per day (bpd) to 3,1 million barrels of oil per day, according to the monthly report published this Thursday, 11.

In sum, OPEC predicts that the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) will be responsible for 1,6 million barrels of oil per day, and countries outside the group for 1,5 million bpd.

Now, with the revisions made and recalculated, OPEC forecasts that world demand in 2022 will reach 100 million barrels of oil per day.

As for the year 2023, OPEC declared that the projection is that world consumption will expand by 2,7 million bpd, to 102,7 million bpd.

Also, the demand for oil could increase significantly due to severe heat waves in Europe and gas shortages. In a monthly report published this Thursday, 11, the IEA raised its projection for the advance in world demand for oil in 2022 to 380 thousand barrels per day, to 2,1 million bpd.

OPEC maintains oil supply forecast

In the report released this Thursday, the 22nd, OPEC maintained its forecast for an increase in oil supply from producers outside the group in 2022, rising from 2,1 million bpd to 65,8 million bpd.

The countries that can contribute even more to the increase in supply in 2022 are the USA, Canada, Brazil, China and Guyana, according to OPEC. However, a drop in oil production is expected in Indonesia and Thailand.

For the year 2023, OPEC's forecast remains an increase of 1,7 million bpd in the supply of oil outside the cartel, to 67,5 million bpd.

Also in the report, OPEC states that its oil production grew by around 162 thousand barrels in July compared to June, to an average of 28,84 million barrels, according to secondary sources.

OPEC confirmed the supply increase of 100 barrels of oil per day in September

This increase made by the Organization will not replace the increases agreed in July, when OPEC decided to add around 648 thousand bpd to its monthly production for July and August. This decision was anticipated by the international press and followed recommendations from its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

In a statement, OPEC pointed out that oil stocks among the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) dropped by around 2,712 million barrels in June, causing emergency stocks to reach the lowest level in the last 30 years.

According to OPEC data, the capacity that has been exceeded in its production should be used with extreme caution, especially since it is facing a dynamic scenario and prone to supply shocks.

The OPEC components that are responsible for the group noted with "particular concern" that the current low level of investments in oil exploration could "impact the availability" of the oil to meet a “growing demand beyond the year 2023” from countries that produce the commodity but that are not part of OPEC and some member countries of the group.

The next OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place on September 5, 2022.

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