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Petrobras (PETR4): How are the shares after 'the most important day of the year'?

Written by Paulo S. Nogueira
Published 28/11/2023 às 16:56
Petrobras, investments, shareholders, dividends, purchase recommendation, strategic plan, oil, gas, renewable companies, oil fields, investment plan, shares, cash forecast, financial institution, remuneration policies.
Petrobras (PETR4) recently calmed investors' sentiment regarding the new strategic plan released for the next five years,

Petrobras (PETR4) recently positively surprised investors by presenting a new strategic plan for the next five years, bringing more confidence to the market in relation to the company. Expectations were exceeded with the measures adopted, demonstrating a promising scenario for the company.

Company Petrobras (PETR4) recently presented its new strategic plan for the next five years, considered by Genial Investimentos as one of the most important moments of the year for the company. However, Genial analysts are still hesitant regarding the buy recommendation.

At a meeting of the board of directors held on September 23, Petrobras approved the Strategic Plan (PE) 2024-2028, establishing a planned investment of US$ 102 billion over the next five years. This is the first PE released under the management of the Lula government. The expected capex exceeds the value estimated in the previous plan by 31% due to new projects and assets that were in the divestment queue and were returned to the investment portfolio.

Genial Investimentos highlights that US$11 billion of investments are earmarked for potential acquisitions in the renewable energy, refining and petrochemical. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the acquisition of renewables according to the terms presented by the company.

In the production area, the company intends to invest in 14 new FPSOs to achieve daily oil and gas production of 3,2 million barrels. Genial highlights that despite the productivity of pre-salt fields, the decline rates of other fields may limit surprises in general production. However, there is the possibility of a successful exploration campaign of the Equatorial Margin fields, which could generate surprising productions for 2028 and beyond.

There is concern in the market about the impact of Petrobras' new investment plan on the company's dividends, but analysts assess that the PE did not bring any major negative surprises and that dividends should still remain at high levels.

Petrobras is not a unanimous purchase recommendation for all homes. While Genial maintains its recommendation to “maintain” the investment, Goldman Sachs reinforced its purchase recommendation. UBS BB bank also reiterated its buy recommendation and increased the target price for the stock.

Based on this information, Petrobras' strategy should provide lower returns to shareholders in the future, although it is possible that positive surprises will translate into higher free cash flows and dividends.

Source: moneytimes

Paulo S. Nogueira

Creator and disseminator of content in the areas of oil, gas, offshore, renewables, mining, economics, technology, construction and other energy sectors.

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