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The US currency is losing global strength, the Brazilian real is appreciating, and analysts are projecting impacts from the Federal Reserve and the Brazilian Central Bank in the coming months.
O The dollar closed the trading session on September 15, 2025, at R$5,322, the lowest level in over a year. During the session, the currency reached R$5,30, consolidating a accumulated drop of 14% in the year against the real, according to data from Banco Pine. This trajectory contrasts with December 2024, when the dollar surpassed R$6 and accumulated high of 27,3%. But after all, why is the dollar falling?
Global factors explain part of the devaluation
The weakening of the US currency is a reflection of external conditions. Since July 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4,25% and 4,5% per year, a level considered high for the United States. However, recent data has shown weakness in the American labor market, increasing the expectation of cuts.
According to the tool CME FedWatch: 96% of investors expect a 0,25 percentage point cut at the meeting scheduled for September 17th. Only 4% project a 0,5 point cut. For Nickolas Lobo, a specialist at Nomad, a softer cut could further weaken the dollar globally, while a tough speech could reverse the trend.
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Experts say China exports unemployment by using dumping to protect local jobs, while Brazil maintains 53 anti-dumping measures in effect.
Cristiano Oliveira, research director at Banco Pine, states that half of the real's appreciation is due to the global weakness of the dollar. The other half is related to internal factors.
The interest rate differential favors Brazil
As the United States prepares to cut rates, the Brazilian Central Bank maintains Selic at 15% per yearThis difference broadens the so-called carry trade, which occurs when investors raise funds in low-interest countries and invest in higher-yielding assets.
According to Otávio Oliveira, manager of Banco Daycoval, the flow of capital increases the inflow of dollars into Brazil, expands the supply of currency and appreciates the realJoão Soares, partner at Rio Negro Investimentos, highlights that the Central Bank's decision to maintain high interest rates for an extended period further strengthens this attractiveness.
Trade policies and local tensions influence exchange rates
Besides the monetary aspect, international policies also put pressure on the dollar. O Donald Trump's tariff hike, announced in mid-2025, contributed to the loss of value of the US currency. At the same time, the trade crisis between Brazil and the United States increased exchange rate volatility, adding uncertainty to the scenario.
Tony Volpon, former director of the Central Bank, assesses that the fair value of the dollar would be around R$5. However, experts warn that political tensions and domestic fiscal risks may limit the appreciation of the real in the coming months.
What to expect in the coming months
If the Federal Reserve rate cut confirmed in September, the dollar is expected to lose even more ground on the international stage. As a result, Brazil remains attractive to foreign capital due to the high Selic rate, supporting the strengthening of the real.
Even so, fiscal uncertainties and internal political disputes can cause exchange rate instability. In short, the dollar is falling because it faces global pressure with expectations of cuts in the United States e solid domestic fundamentals in Brazil, which include interest rate differentials, capital flows and country risk reduction.
What do you believe will be more decisive for the exchange rate in the coming months: the Federal Reserve's decisions or the internal challenges of the Brazilian economy?
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