Shares of Brazilian oil company Petrobras are down 3% in shares after disclosure of quarterly report; experts point to the change in the PPI as the main cause of this devaluation

Petrobras shares face a significant drop, following the second quarter production and sales report, affecting the company's PPI.

Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant, experienced a drop of more than 3% in the price of its shares on Thursday, July 27th, characterizing one of the biggest falls on the stock exchange of the day. This negative movement in Petrobras shares came after the release of the company's production and sales report for the second quarter, strongly impacting PPI (Import Parity Price) from the company.

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What are the details of Petrobras production and sales report?

According to the Petrobras, the daily production of a barrel of oil equivalent (boe/d) remained at 2,6 million in the second quarter, an annual reduction of 0,6%, impacting Petrobras' PPI. In contrast, pre-salt production set a new record, surpassing the previous one with production of 2,06 million boe/d, up from 2,05 million boe/d in the previous quarter.

Petrobras also registered a 15,7% increase in internal gasoline sales in the annual comparison, while diesel sales fell by 3,8%. Petrobras' complete report, with possible effects on the PPI, is expected for next Thursday, August 3rd.

Based on these operational data, analysts at the BTG Pactual, who even advised 3R Petroleum, projected a 23% drop in EBITDA for the second quarter to R$57,1 billion. According to them, quarterly declines of 5% and 15% in oil and domestic fuel prices are the main factors that influenced the fall in Petrobras shares.

Could this drop impact Petrobras' shares and future prospects?

Although analysts at BTG Pactual have been less pessimistic about Petrobras in recent months, they point out that the “potential benefits” of investing in the state-owned company, especially considering the PPI and Petrobras shares, are not as clear as before.

Petrobras' dividend policy, which has been a big draw for investors, could strongly influence Petrobras' share price. Itaú analysts expect the new dividend program be launched by the end of the week, with Petrobras opting to distribute 50% of the net profit. However, BTG analysts believe that a positive reaction would only occur if Petrobras announced a payout of more than 50%.

The introduction of a buyback program could also be a trigger for Petrobras shares. “But we believe it will only be well received if it is substantial, not included in the dividend payment calculation and has a clear recurrence schedule”, concluded BTG.

• Via Bloomberg Intelligence