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Stability, the market only sees for diesel, cooking gas, biodiesel, and LPG, for which President Lula established that the collection of taxes should only be resumed after December 31 of this year. Moreover, Haddad's plans for fuels provide for the resumption of encumbrance, with the collection of federal taxes, PIS/Cofins and Cide, starting in March.
And with that, Haddad must announce, again, the measure that for many is seen as unpopular. Gasoline and ethanol prices will rise. However, to try to control inflation, he seems to have no other way out, even though he has only been in office for less than 15 days, officially. Encumbering fuel seems to be one of the ways, since, just the resumption of the collection of IPI, and taxes on fuels, there is a forecast of a collection of around R$ 40 billion.
Certainly, improvement of the government's public accounts Squid are also in the plans for Haddad to remain the strong man. Lula does not want to convey the image that the anti-democratic acts of the last 8th have interfered in the work, and he determined that Haddad would remain with the plans to announce the calendar of measures for that purpose.
The expectation is an impact of more than R$ 200 billion. Thus, it is possible that the gross debt will remain close to 76% of GDP until the next major election, is the assessment of specialists in the sector. Only after 2026 is it expected that there will be room for a decrease in prices, mainly with regard to ethanol and gasoline.
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Already the others fuels, the change is something more sensitive, since it has the potential to ignite the spark of the stoppage of truck drivers, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Hence, the decision that taxes would not be collected until the end of the year. Thus, it is already expected that, in Haddad's plans, gasoline becomes more expensive, diesel remains at the same price.
Haddad's first loss
The signing of the normative act extending the exemption until December 31, on 1o January, was considered the first bucket of cold water received by the finance Minister. This is because, in the last days of 2022, he had negotiated with the previous one, Paulo Guedes, in an attempt to pacify the transition of government.
But Haddad did not consider it a defeat, rather that Lula, and the economic team, opted for the middle path. Guedes wanted a 90-day extension, the current minister wanted 30, and the President of the Republic opted for 60 days.
The finance minister still has other plans, he wants to show the financial market the ability of the Workers' Party (PT) to follow an austere economic project, since it is not good, for investors, the reputation of being a spender. However, he still needs to agree with other actors in the game, because an increase in gasoline and diesel brings an increase in the price of food. And so, how is Lula going to keep his promise to put picanha on the table of Brazilians?
