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Brazil's growing dependence on China brings significant risks to the national economy. The concentration of exports and the invasion of Chinese products in the Brazilian market require an urgent diversification strategy. Brazil's economic survival may depend on the ability to reduce this dependence and strengthen domestic production.
China's growing influence over the Brazilian economy is a topic that raises concerns and, at the same time, reveals a dependence that many consider dangerous.
Why does this relationship, which began timidly a few decades ago, now represent a potential risk to national sovereignty and the future of the Brazilian economy?
To understand this complex dynamic, it is necessary to explore the evolution of the trade balance between the two countries and the possible impacts of this dependence on Brazil.
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China's advancement as Brazil's trading partner
Over the last 50 years, the commercial relationship between Brazil and China has intensified notably.
Since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1974, China has gone from being a trading partner of little importance to becoming the main destination for Brazilian exports.
This growth was especially notable from 2009 onwards, when China surpassed the United States and consolidated itself as Brazil's largest trading partner.
The data is impressive. In 1981, China ranked 38th among Brazil's main trading partners.
However, over the years, China has not only climbed positions but also established itself at the top.
In 2023, Brazil recorded a record exports to China de US $ 104,3 billion, resulting in a historical positive balance of US $ 51,1 billion.
This surplus was essential to strengthen the international reservations of the country, contributing to the stabilization of external accounts.
The dangerous dependence on Brazilian exports
Despite the positive numbers, economist Ecio Costa, from UFPE, warns of the risk of excessive dependence on the Chinese economy.
According to him, the concentration of Brazilian exports in China is a phenomenon that has been getting worse over time.
In July 2024 alone, China accounted for 33,2% of Brazilian exports, which represents a third of everything Brazil sells abroad.
This level of concentration creates significant vulnerability. If the Chinese economy suffers a slowdown or if food prices commodities exported by Brazil drops drastically, the impact on the Brazilian trade balance could be devastating.
The economist highlights that Brazil needs to diversify its commercial partnerships to mitigate this risk and avoid possible crises of balance of payments.
The Chinese invasion of the Brazilian market
Not only are Brazilian exports to China that grew exponentially. As imports of Chinese products also increased overwhelmingly, especially from 2018 onwards.
That year, Brazil imported US $ 35,2 billion in goods from China, surpassing the United States, from where they were imported US $ 32,8 billion in products.
The growth of Chinese imports in Brazil since 1981 was 9.800%, which highlights the growing presence of Chinese products in the Brazilian market.
It invasion of goods, which includes everything from electronics to automobiles, has directly affected the national industry, which finds itself under pressure to compete with the low prices and high supply of Chinese products.
The leading role of soy and the necessary diversification
Among the main products exported by Brazil to China, soybean occupies a prominent place. From January to July 2024, soybean sales to China totaled US $ 24,1 billion, consolidating the grain as the flagship of Brazilian exports. However, this over-reliance on a single product can also pose a risk.
While Brazil exports commodities such as soybeans, minerals and fuels, imports in the country include more sophisticated products, such as Válvulas, thermionic tubes e automobiles, which compete directly with national production.
Ecio Costa emphasizes that the diversification of exports is crucial to reducing Brazil's economic vulnerability. The country needs to explore new market opportunities and strengthen sectors that can add more value to the economy.
An uncertain future for the Brazilian economy
However, growing dependence on the Chinese economy also exposes Brazil to considerable risks. The lack of diversification in exports and the invasion of Chinese products into the Brazilian market are issues that demand attention and strategic action on the part of the government and the productive sector.
Given this scenario, the question remains: how can Brazil reduce its dependence on China and guarantee economic security in the future? The challenge is great, but the answer may lie in the diversification of commercial partnerships and the valorization of national production.
