Petrobras' uncertain future: lack of clarity, changes and challenges at refineries and at Polo Gaslub (formerly Comperj) raise concerns among investors and analysts

Petrobras' lack of clarity about the project's objectives has raised concerns among investors and industry analysts

Petrobras and its project in Itaboraí (RJ), Polo Gaslub (former Petrochemical Complex of Rio de Janeiro – Comperj), are characters in a soap opera with many comings and goings, and surprising twists. The history of the project began in 2006, when Petrobras idealized a petrochemical complex capable of processing around 8% of the Brazilian oil production at the time. The objective was to make the country self-sufficient and an exporter of petrochemicals. Although, the project was involved in a series of corruption schemes investigated by Operation Lava Jato.

In 2020, Petrobras changed the name of the project to Polo Gaslub and revised the concept of the complex – which would now have a fuel and lubricant processing plant, in addition to a thermal power plant. Now, under the management of Jean Paul Prates, the idea is that the project can once again receive investments in petrochemicals. Still, uncertainty and the lack of a clear strategy have been constant.

Petrobras studies the possibility of modifying the scope of the Gaslub hub (formerly Comperj) again

Petrobras recently announced that it is studying the possibility of modifying the scope of the project again, now also covering the production of second generation petrochemical products. However, this change appears to be just one of many ideas being discussed internally at the company. The lack of clarity about the project's objectives has raised concerns among investors and industry analysts.

Still on Petrobras' changes in direction, the state-owned company stated that it is studying projects to expand the production of Diesel R – fuel produced by co-processing mineral diesel with vegetable oil, which contains a portion of green diesel (HVO, in English). The idea is to evaluate adaptations for the co-processing of Diesel R at the REGAP (Gabriel Passos Refinery) and RNEST (Abreu e Lima Refinery) refineries. New dedicated plants for the production of Diesel R100 will also be evaluated, with 100% sustainable raw material, at RNEST and Polo Gaslub.

Search for new discussion with CADE

The changes don't stop there. A Petrobras intends to discuss with the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) on the state-owned refinery sale program. The idea is to seek a new discussion to reconcile the commitments previously assumed with the new proposals to be considered in the strategic planning.

However, this initiative can be seen as an attempt to minimize the damage caused by the sale of the refineries, which were considered undue and without defense at the level that the case deserved, according to the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates. The sales were imposed by CADE, which alleged a lack of competition in the refining market.

Future of Polo Gaslub and Petrobras refineries remains uncertain

The future of Polo Gaslub and Petrobras' refineries remains uncertain, and the lack of transparency and clarity about the company's objectives has been a matter of concern among investors and industry analysts.

A Petrobras needs to face the challenges of the market and guarantee its leadership position, especially at a time when the energy transition is gaining momentum.

It is essential that the company has a clear and consistent plan for the future, which includes not only the production of fossil fuels, but also the expansion in renewable sources and cleaner technologies. In addition, it is essential that Petrobras maintain an open and transparent dialogue with its shareholders and society in general, in order to guarantee the confidence and support necessary to face the challenges ahead.