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The Conflict in the Middle East raises concerns about the Oil market
The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, especially due to Hamas attacks on Israel, has attracted international attention and raised significant concerns about the impact on global oil prices. The region, known for being one of the main oil production hubs, is now facing a situation that could profoundly alter the dynamics of the global energy market.
Any conflict in the Middle East poses a potential threat to the security of oil supplies. A war involving a large producer such as Iran or Persian Gulf countries could have even more serious implications for the global oil market, leading to a scenario where no consequences would be positive.
OPEC+ Resilience in the Face of Conflict
Given the recent cuts in production, implemented to maintain oil prices at desirable levels by OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia), the group's main producers appear to be more prepared to face shocks, compared to crises. previous ones. With oil production reduced to support prices, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies have a considerable technical reserve of oil production capacity, estimated at around 4 million barrels per day (4% of global supply), according to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration).
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The potential impact of the war and the situation in Iran
War can significantly alter supply conditions, depending on the scope and duration of the conflict. The involvement of Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 17 million barrels flow per day (17% of global demand), is a critical point. Any disruption to this flow could have a dramatic effect on oil markets.
Another relevant factor is the recent change in US policy towards Venezuela, which could lead to an increase in heavy crude oil exports. However, due to years of underinvestment, the increase in Venezuelan production will be limited, at least in the short term.
Future perspectives and the role of Brazil
In this context, the global oil market is expected to remain tense and uncertain. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members are expected to maintain their reduced production quotas, at least until the end of the first quarter of 2024. The market predicts a historic production level of 102 million barrels per day in 2023, with global demand for oil increasing by about 1,3 million barrels per day by 2024.
Despite global challenges, Brazil is positioned favorably, thanks to its location far from conflict zones and its status as a rising oil exporter. With a wide range
Source: By Felipe Kury.
