Understand how geopolitical tensions affect the Brazilian economy
The volatility of prices oil, exacerbated by conflicts in the Middle East, threatens global economic stability. This phenomenon, in addition to reflecting market instability, highlights the vulnerability of the world's dependence on this crucial resource. The current situation in the market for oil It is complex, with direct impacts on the economic strategies of dependent countries, including Brazil.
The prices of oil they are historically influenced by geopolitical conflicts, a relationship evidenced by theories of supply and demand and strategic control over these resources. The 1973 embargo, for example, not only raised food prices oil but also transformed the global geopolitical landscape through the concept of “petrodollars”.
The dynamics of conflicts and the oil market
The disintegration of the Soviet Union and subsequent conflicts, such as the Gulf War in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, illustrate how military actions and political instability directly impact commodity markets. oil. These events emphasize the role of oil not only as an energy resource, but also as a tool of power and a focus for international conflicts.
Recently, the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel caused new concerns in the market, with oil prices oil responding quickly through speculation and risk assessments. These fluctuations are worrying not only because of the possible interruption of supply, but also because of the risk of a broader conflict that could involve other oil-producing nations. oil.
Brazilian response to unstable oil prices
In Brazil, the response to these fluctuations came through the initiative of the Minister of Mines and Energy, who established a working group dedicated to constant monitoring of oil prices. oil. This group aims to analyze fluctuations and develop strategies to mitigate negative impacts on the national economy. This includes diversifying energy sources, negotiating bilateral agreements for energy security, and developing strategic energy reserves. oil.
Brazilian legislation supports these preventive measures, allowing the government to adopt proactive policies in the face of imminent risks. It is crucial that the government works together with the private sector, including Petrobras and fuel distributors, to ensure transparency and effectiveness in preventing energy crises.
Conclusion
The instability of prices oil caused by conflicts in the Middle East requires a strategic and well-founded political and economic approach by Brazil. Continuous monitoring and crisis preparedness are vital to minimize adverse impacts, both internally and on the country's international relations. The formation of a resilient and adaptive energy policy is essential in the face of the uncertainties surrounding the geopolitics of the oil.
Source: Leonardo Roesler, partner at RMS Advogados.
