In 2021/22 sugarcane production was around 520 million tons, now the expectation is for an increase of up to 7%.

The 2022/23 sugarcane harvest begins this Friday (01) in Brazil. And the sector's projections are for a partial improvement, compared to the 2021/2022 cycle. The market indications are that the mills in the Center-South of the country should grind 562 million tons, compared to 525 million in the past harvest, projecting the production of ethanol in more than 29,8 billion liters (in 2021/2022 it was 27,7 billion).

Despite the forecast for a higher sugarcane harvest that starts this year than in the previous season, sugar mill owners across the country are worried about the weather conditions in the first third of the planting period. This is because, according to agricultural consultancy datagro, there is the possibility of worsening the scenario due to fires, dry weather and frosts that occurred last year.

See below the table with comparisons and projections of sugarcane production and perspectives for ethanol production

Sugarcane harvest grows, but the sector has already presented better results

The projection for an increase of up to 7% in sugarcane production, and consequently ethanol, at mills in Brazil in 2022/2023 is still far from what the country has already been able to produce.

The 2020/21 harvest was 605,46 million tons, which is the last best result recorded at the plants. Before that, production in 2016/17 reached 607,14 and in 2015/216 the record was 617 million.

Will the price of ethanol go down with the increase in sugarcane production?

It will still be the price of oil that will define the pace of readjustments in the value of ethanol at fuel pumps throughout 2022, say economists. That's because the price of biofuel derived from sugar cane follows increases in gasoline. That is, if alcohol becomes too cheap, everyone will buy it and it may run out.

Last week, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) registered an increase in the price of a liter of hydrous ethanol in 17 states and the Federal District, reaching an average of R$ 4,95. Flex vehicle drivers who want to know the best choice between gasoline and ethanol, it is necessary to make a calculation on the price of the two fuels.