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Treasury Points Out That The Record Deficit Was Distorted By The Extraordinary Payment Of R$ 60.5 Billion In Judicial Claims, Reducing The Structural Weight Of The Shortfall.
Brazil recorded in July 2025 a record deficit of R$ 59.1 billion, the second worst result in the historical series for the month, behind only July 2020, during the pandemic. The data, released by the National Treasury and reported by O Globo, raised alarms about public accounts, but economic authorities emphasized that the number was strongly influenced by a one-time event: the exceptional payment of R$ 60.5 billion in judicial claims.
In practice, the atypical spending distorted the comparison with previous years and helps to explain a large part of the shortfall. Even so, the result pressures the government’s target, which aims to eliminate the primary deficit by 2025, with a margin of tolerance between -R$ 31 billion and +R$ 31 billion.
The Weight Of Judicial Claims In The July Result
According to the Treasury, the 28% jump in primary expenses compared to July 2024 is directly linked to the payment of judicial claims, judicial debts that the Union is obliged to settle. By itself, this extraordinary expense accounted for more than the entire fiscal shortfall for the month, revealing that without the judicial claims, the result would have been much closer to historical normality.
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Furthermore, the mass settlement affected other items such as pensions and personnel expenses, creating, in the words of Secretary Rogério Ceron, a “distorted base” for the analysis of public accounts.
Accumulated Deficit And Fiscal Target For 2025
From January to July, the accumulated deficit is R$ 70.2 billion, which represents a decrease of 9.1% compared to the same period in 2024. For the government, this data reinforces that there is room for reversal throughout the year.
The economic team bets on increased revenue, driven by growth in activity and measures to strengthen fiscal discipline, such as combating tax evasion and reviewing incentives. The expectation is that, without new shocks like those from the judicial claims, Brazil will be able to meet the zero deficit target in 2025.
What Is At Stake
Despite the optimistic rhetoric, analysts warn that the record deficit reignites doubts about the credibility of the fiscal framework and the government’s ability to control mandatory expenditures amid rising social and pension spending. At the same time, the episode shows how one-time factors can seriously impact the outcome of public accounts.
The record deficit in July is concerning, but it does not only reflect a structural imbalance in Brazilian finances. The extraordinary payment of judicial claims explains a large part of the result and opens space for recovery in the coming months.
And you, do you believe that the government will be able to eliminate the deficit by the end of the year or will mandatory spending prevent this goal? Leave your opinion in the comments — we want to hear from those who closely follow the Brazilian economy.
Déficit ou superavit primário é irrelevante.
O que importa são os mais de 1,5 trilhões pagos de juros devido a essa taxa insana determinada pelo Banco Central. Ciro Gomes explica muito bem porque é uma insanidade.
É só o Motta e a câmara, pararem de desviar fundos da educação, saúde, segurança e de outros projetos do executivo, com os pix secretos, que ai sobra dinheiro para o Governo diminuir o déficit.
Nada é culpa da União… Toda a culpa é terceirizada.
CLARO que SIM!!!!!
A equipe é eficientissíma!!!!!