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Economic Agenda This Week Brings Inflation, Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Corporate Results That Move the Market.
The economic agenda for the second full week of 2026 will be decisive for investors tracking market performance in Brazil and abroad.
Between January 13 and 16, data on macroeconomic indicators, inflation, monetary policy, and corporate results are expected to guide short-term decisions.
The numbers will be released by agencies such as IBGE and the Central Bank, as well as relevant data from the United States, at a time when the market seeks clearer signs regarding economic activity and inflation trends.
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Cautious monitoring of these indicators is essential to understand the pace of the economy and the possible impacts on interest rates and financial assets.
Brazil’s Macroeconomic Indicators Attract Attention
Domestically, macroeconomic indicators gain prominence throughout the week. On Tuesday (13), IBGE will release the Monthly Services Survey for November.
The expectation is for a growth of 0.1% compared to the previous month.
Events occurring throughout the month, such as the COP30, may have introduced greater volatility in the data, especially in segments related to tourism, transportation, and business services.
Still, the result will serve as an important thermometer for economic activity at the end of 2025.
Retail Sales Help Measure Consumption
On Thursday (15), IBGE will publish retail sales data.
The expectation is for a slight increase compared to October, indicating some resilience in household consumption.
This data is relevant because it helps shape the understanding of the activity level and directly influences projections for economic growth.
Therefore, the result will be closely monitored by analysts and investors attentive to the evolution of internal consumption.
Inflation and IBC-Br Wrap Up the Economic Agenda for the Week
Friday (16) hosts two of the main highlights of the economic agenda.
The Central Bank will release the IBC-Br, an indicator that acts as a monthly proxy for GDP, providing an early reading of economic activity.
On the same day, the IGP-10 for January will be released, a relevant indicator of inflation.
According to Itaú, “we expect a monthly increase of 0.20% (compared to 0.04% in December), raising the annual rate to -1.1%, up from -0.7% in December.”
The institution adds that the previous result reflected a “0.21% increase in the industrial IPA and a 0.70% decrease in the agricultural IPA – mainly driven by the prices of milk, coffee, tomatoes, and oranges.”
Political Scenario Influences Economic Expectations
In the political arena, the parliamentary recess continues in Brasília, slowing the pace of voting in Congress.
On the other hand, the return of the Minister of Finance to work is expected to reignite economic debates in the Executive.
Additionally, there is anticipation for the appointment of a new Minister of Justice and Public Security, following the departure of the current officeholder.
Although not directly economic, ministerial changes often create noise in the markets and can affect short-term risk perception.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Dominate the International Agenda
In the United States, the week’s focus falls on inflation and its impacts on monetary policy.
On Wednesday, retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both for November, will be released.
The PPI is especially relevant as it is part of the calculation for the PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric for monitoring inflation.
These data will help calibrate expectations for the upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for the end of January.
According to Bradesco, “at the same time, the market will continue to monitor the geopolitical developments of recent American actions and possible indications for the future presidency of the Federal Reserve.”
Corporate Results: Camil Comes into Focus
In corporate results news, Camil (CAML3) will announce its numbers for the third quarter of 2025 on January 14.
The expectation is for improvement compared to the same period last year, which had a pressured comparative base.
BTG Pactual highlights that the main challenge remains the significant drop in rice prices, with a 49% decline year-on-year and a 13% decrease in the quarter.
Nonetheless, high-turnover volumes are expected to reach 328 thousand tons.
Thus, revenue in Brazil is estimated at R$ 1.95 billion, with Ebitda of R$ 165 million and a margin of 8.4%.
In consolidated terms, the projection is for revenue of R$ 2.7 billion and Ebitda of R$ 226 million, with a margin of 8.3%.
For BTG, “rice prices are at levels deemed economically unsustainable for producers,” which may lead to a reduction in planted area and a rebalancing of supply in the future.
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