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Historical Result of the Federal Revenue Driven by IOF, IRRF, Social Security and Online Betting Reinforces Government’s Cash Flow and Fiscal Target for 2026
The federal revenue reached R$ 325.7 billion in January, marking the highest value for the month since the beginning of the historical series in 1995. Furthermore, the result represents real growth of 3.56% compared to January 2025, already adjusted for inflation. Therefore, the performance not only surpasses previous marks but also signals strengthening of public revenues right at the beginning of the year.
The information was disclosed by “Agência Brasil,” with official data from the Federal Revenue of Brazil presented on 02/24/2026. According to the IRS, the advancement occurred mainly due to the growth of economic activity and, at the same time, the recent changes in tax legislation.
While some taxes recorded strong expansion, others showed a real decline. Nevertheless, the overall balance was positive and strategic for meeting the fiscal target established for 2026.
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IOF Jumps 49.05% and Bets Rise 2,642%: What Fueled the Record Revenue?
Among the highlights of the month, the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) showed significant growth. The revenue totaled R$ 8 billion in January, with a real increase of 49.05% compared to the same month in 2025. This leap, as explained by the Federal Revenue, reflects changes in legislation that expanded the incidence of the tax on new financial transactions. Thus, the impact was immediate on public accounts.
In addition, the Withholding Income Tax (IRRF) on capital gains also recorded significant growth of 32.56%, totaling R$ 14.68 billion. The growth was driven by investments in fixed income and the taxation of Interest on Equity (JCP), a mechanism used by companies to distribute profits to shareholders.
At the end of 2025, the National Congress approved an increase in the IRRF rate on JCP from 15% to 17.5%. However, this change will only start to effectively impact federal revenue from April, as it still depends on the legal period for implementation.
Another noteworthy data was the taxation on online betting and gambling. In January, the sector raised R$ 1.5 billion, compared to only R$ 55 million in the same month of the previous year. This represents an impressive annual growth of 2,642%. The advancement reflects the regulation of the sector and the expansion of the collection on the so-called “bets.” However, part of the changes approved at the end of 2025 has not yet fully impacted revenue due to the grace period, which establishes 90 days for charging to start after a rate change.
Social Security and Cofins Support Growth While Imports Decline
The revenue from Social Security also showed robust performance. The total reached R$ 63.45 billion, with a real increase of 5.48% compared to January 2025. This growth was attributed to a 3.49% increase in the wage mass and, simultaneously, a 7.46% rise in the collection from the Simples Nacional.
Furthermore, the revenues from Cofins and PIS totaled R$ 56 billion, with a real expansion of 4.35% in the annual comparison. According to the Federal Revenue, the growth reflects the increase in sales volume in commerce and the service sector, indicating greater economic dynamism.
On the other hand, import-related taxes recorded a real decline. The revenues from the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) and the Import Tax fell by 14.74% in January, adjusted for inflation, compared to the same month in 2025. According to the IRS, this result is due to the reduction in the volume of imports in dollars and the drop in the exchange rate in the annual comparison.
Record Revenue Helps Government Meet Fiscal Target for 2026
The performance in January reinforces the government’s cash flow right at the beginning of the fiscal year. Consequently, it contributes to meeting the fiscal target for 2026, which anticipates a primary surplus of R$ 34.3 billion, excluding the payment of court orders and expenses outside the fiscal framework.
Fiscal rules, however, establish a tolerance limit of 0.25 percentage points in relation to the central target. Thus, the government is authorized to achieve a primary result that can vary from zero to a surplus of R$ 68.6 billion in 2025.
Therefore, the record revenue does not only represent a historic number. It also signals greater fiscal management capacity, especially in a scenario that requires a balance between revenue, fiscal responsibility, and stimulus for economic growth.
Do you believe that the growth of federal revenue is sustainable in the coming months or does it depend too much on the new rules regarding IOF and bets?
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